Shining Fates Mini Tin Display – price, EV & deals

From Shining Fates · Sword & Shield

$291.74TCGplayer market · updated 2h ago0.01×

Listings range $299.99 – $399.99, mid $345.00

Product type: Tin
Packs: 2 packs
Cards per pack: 10
Released: Feb 19, 2021

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Price history last 180 days

Market$291.74One daily snapshot so far — the line fills in as TCGplayer market prices are captured each day (up to 180 days shown).

Expected value of opening

0.01×computed Sep 15, 2026

Well below break-even: opening returns only about 1% of the $291.74 price in raw card value. Hold sealed for appreciation or buy singles; do not open this expecting to recover the cost.

EV per pack: $1.29; 2 packs per tin
EV gross: $2.59; raw TCGplayer market value of the average pulls
EV net: $1.19; after 15% fees and $1 shipping per card; 0.00× price
Break-even price: $2.59; pay less than this and opening beats buying singles on average
Chase share: 10%; share of hit value from top-tier rarities (SIR, hyper, secret)
P(at least one top hit): 18%; in the whole tin
Hit rate per pack: 9%; illustration rare or better
Pull rates: Published; source: published

Per-rarity contribution to EV per pack. Mean price is the average TCGplayer market of every card at that rarity in the set.
Rarity	Cards	Pull rate	Mean price	EV / pack	Top card
Rare Holo VMAX	6	1 in 19 packs	$2.52	$0.13	Ditto VMAX #51 · $4.75
Amazing Rare	3	1 in 19 packs	$2.46	$0.13	Kyogre #21 · $4.21
Rare Ultra	9	1 in 32 packs	$4.10	$0.13	Skyla #72 · $9.88
Rare Holo V	8	1 in 9 packs	$1.06	$0.12	Ditto V #50 · $1.90
Rare Rainbow	1	1 in 91 packs	$5.01	$0.06	Alcremie VMAX #73 · $5.01
Guaranteed slots	—	every pack	—	$0.73	rare slot, reverse holo, commons and uncommons at bulk value

Model notes (2)

no cards with rarity "Shiny Rare" in set
no cards with rarity "Rare Secret" in set

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Every active eBay listing matched to this product is compared against the TCGplayer market price (currently $291.74), shipping included. A listing only counts as a deal when it lands at least 12% below that baseline with a confident card, condition and variant match — seller “was” prices are ignored. Nothing qualifies at the moment; listings are re-checked every 15 minutes.

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Other Shining Fates sealed products

Product	Type	Packs	Market	EV (gross)	EV ratio	Deals
Shining Fates Booster Pack	Booster Pack	1	$15.50	$1.29	0.08×	—
Shining Fates Booster Pack Art Bundle [Set of 4]	Booster Pack	4	$59.64	$5.17	0.09×	—
Shining Fates Collection [Pikachu V]	Collection Box	—	$65.59	—	n/a	—
Shining Fates Collection [Shiny Boltund V]	Collection Box	—	$68.19	—	n/a	—
Shining Fates Collection [Shiny Cramorant V]	Collection Box	—	$63.99	—	n/a	—