Open or Hold: the sealed EV board
Every English booster box with a pack count, pull rates and a TCGplayer market price, ranked by how much card value you can expect to pull per dollar spent. EV is computed from the set’s current singles prices, so it moves with the market. Ratios above 1.0 are the exception, not the rule; read the notes below before opening anything.
What EV means here
Expected value is the average TCGplayer market value of the cards inside a product if you opened thousands of them. For each rarity we take the set’s published pull rate (one hit per N packs), multiply by the mean market price of that rarity in the set, and add a small baseline for the guaranteed rare, reverse and common slots. Multiply by the pack count and you have EV (gross). Net EV then removes a 15% marketplace fee and $1 shipping per card you would actually sell, and counts anything under $1 as bulk.
Why ratios below 1.0 are normal
Sealed product carries a premium over its contents: sellers price in the gambling appeal, the unopened-collectible value and the fact that most people never sell their pulls. Right now the median booster box on this board returns 0.29× its market price in expected card value. A ratio near or above 1.0 is rare and usually means the singles market has run ahead of the sealed price, or the box is being dumped. Anything under 0.7 is entertainment, not investment.
How to read chase share and P(≥1 hit)
Chase share is the fraction of hit EV that comes from the rarest tiers (Special Illustration Rare, Hyper Rare, Secret). A 60% chase share means most of the value is locked in cards that appear once in 80 to 1,300 packs; the median box will underperform the EV. P(≥1 hit) is the chance of at least one Illustration Rare or better anywhere in the product, so it is close to 100% for boxes and much lower for single packs. Rows marked era default use era-average pull rates because nobody has published counts for that set yet; treat those EVs as rough. Full method in Methodology.
Cheapest EV per dollar right now
Across all product types · published pull rates only
#1 · Booster PackPaldea Evolved Fun PackPaldea Evolved0.68×$0.68 of EV per $1market $7.71 · EV $5.21 · net $3.79
#2 · Booster PackJourney Together Fun PackJourney Together0.65×$0.65 of EV per $1market $3.93 · EV $2.54 · net $1.50
#3 · Booster BoxTemporal Forces Booster BoxTemporal Forces0.54×$0.54 of EV per $1market $316.50 · EV $171.97 · net $118.93
Booster boxes by EV ratio
34 products · median ratio 0.29× · 0 at or above 1.0× · 30 with published pull rates
| # | Set | Product | Market | EV (gross) | EV ratio | Net EV | Break-even | Chase share | P(≥1 hit) | Pull rates | Deals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Temporal Forces | Temporal Forces Booster Box 36 packs · $4.78 EV per pack | $316.50 | $171.97 | 0.54× | $118.93 | $171.97 | 16% | 100% | published | 0 |
| 2 |  Perfect Order | Perfect Order Booster Box 36 packs · $2.26 EV per pack | $178.87 | $81.32 | 0.45× | $52.18 | $81.32 | 50% | 100% | published | 0 |
| 3 |  Paradox Rift | Paradox Rift Booster Box 36 packs · $3.44 EV per pack | $279.01 | $123.82 | 0.44× | $83.66 | $123.82 | 18% | 100% | published | 0 |
| 4 |  Pitch Black | Pitch Black Booster Box 36 packs · $2.34 EV per pack | $192.26 | $84.39 | 0.44× | $52.53 | $84.39 | 49% | 100% | published | 0 |
| 5 |  Stellar Crown | Stellar Crown Booster Box 36 packs · $3.66 EV per pack | $308.87 | $131.67 | 0.43× | $86.91 | $131.67 | 16% | 100% | published | 0 |
| 6 |  Scarlet & Violet | Scarlet & Violet Booster Box 36 packs · $3.27 EV per pack | $292.46 | $117.73 | 0.40× | $79.08 | $117.73 | 28% | 100% | published | 0 |
| 7 |  Paldea Evolved | Paldea Evolved Booster Box 36 packs · $5.21 EV per pack | $479.61 | $187.39 | 0.39× | $136.57 | $187.39 | 21% | 100% | published | 0 |
| 8 |  Chaos Rising | Chaos Rising Booster Box 36 packs · $2.12 EV per pack | $197.45 | $76.27 | 0.39× | $46.05 | $76.27 | 55% | 100% | published | 0 |
| 9 |  Twilight Masquerade | Twilight Masquerade Booster Box 36 packs · $3.77 EV per pack | $356.09 | $135.88 | 0.38× | $90.08 | $135.88 | 31% | 100% | published | 0 |
| 10 |  Journey Together | Journey Together Booster Box 36 packs · $2.54 EV per pack | $239.71 | $91.32 | 0.38× | $54.08 | $91.32 | 36% | 100% | published | 0 |
| 11 |  Mega Evolution | Mega Evolution Enhanced Booster Box 36 packs · $3.01 EV per pack | $291.39 | $108.22 | 0.37× | $70.43 | $108.22 | 44% | 100% | published | 0 |
| 12 | Journey Together | Journey Together Enhanced Booster Box 36 packs · $2.54 EV per pack | $251.65 | $91.32 | 0.36× | $54.08 | $91.32 | 36% | 100% | published | 0 |
| 13 |  Obsidian Flames | Obsidian Flames Booster Box 36 packs · $3.60 EV per pack | $372.96 | $129.46 | 0.35× | $86.04 | $129.46 | 39% | 100% | published | 0 |
| 14 | Twilight Masquerade | Twilight Masqueade Half Booster Box 18 packs · $3.77 EV per pack | $196.88 | $67.94 | 0.35× | $45.04 | $67.94 | 31% | 98% | published | 0 |
| 15 | Mega Evolution | Mega Evolution Booster Box 36 packs · $3.01 EV per pack | $314.34 | $108.22 | 0.34× | $70.43 | $108.22 | 44% | 100% | published | 0 |
| 16 |  Phantasmal Flames | Phantasmal Flames Booster Box 36 packs · $3.79 EV per pack | $397.68 | $136.37 | 0.34× | $98.12 | $136.37 | 72% | 100% | published | 0 |
| 17 |  Surging Sparks | Surging Sparks Booster Box 36 packs · $2.57 EV per pack | $302.99 | $92.37 | 0.30× | $64.00 | $92.37 | 51% | 100% | published | 0 |
| 18 |  Destined Rivals | Destined Rivals Booster Box 36 packs · $3.33 EV per pack | $432.27 | $119.93 | 0.28× | $85.07 | $119.93 | 58% | 98% | published | 0 |
| 19 |  Battle Styles | Battle Styles Booster Box 36 packs · $2.19 EV per pack | $291.41 | $78.66 | 0.27× | $46.75 | $78.66 | 19% | 86% | era default (SWSH) | 0 |
| 20 | Stellar Crown | Stellar Crown Half Booster Box 18 packs · $3.66 EV per pack | $246.17 | $65.83 | 0.27× | $43.46 | $65.83 | 16% | 98% | published | 0 |
| 21 |  Vivid Voltage | Vivid Voltage Booster Box 36 packs · $2.26 EV per pack | $312.06 | $81.51 | 0.26× | $48.81 | $81.51 | 23% | 99% | published | 0 |
| 22 | Surging Sparks | Surging Sparks Half Booster Box 18 packs · $2.57 EV per pack | $196.13 | $46.18 | 0.24× | $32.00 | $46.18 | 51% | 95% | published | 0 |
| 23 | Destined Rivals | Destined Rivals Half Booster Box 18 packs · $3.33 EV per pack | $308.44 | $59.96 | 0.19× | $42.53 | $59.96 | 58% | 85% | published | 0 |
| 24 |  Brilliant Stars | Brilliant Stars Booster Box 36 packs · $2.85 EV per pack | $581.97 | $102.63 | 0.18× | $67.78 | $102.63 | 20% | 95% | published | 0 |
| 25 |  Darkness Ablaze | Darkness Ablaze Booster Box 36 packs · $1.67 EV per pack | $368.67 | $60.13 | 0.16× | $34.04 | $60.13 | 15% | 86% | era default (SWSH) | 0 |
| 26 |  Chilling Reign | Chilling Reign Booster Box 36 packs · $2.19 EV per pack | $484.51 | $78.86 | 0.16× | $53.35 | $78.86 | 19% | 81% | published | 0 |
| 27 |  Rebel Clash | Rebel Clash Booster Box 36 packs · $2.09 EV per pack | $484.68 | $75.14 | 0.15× | $41.45 | $75.14 | 25% | 86% | era default (SWSH) | 0 |
| 28 |  Astral Radiance | Astral Radiance Booster Box 36 packs · $1.70 EV per pack | $413.15 | $61.20 | 0.15× | $32.57 | $61.20 | 20% | 96% | published | 0 |
| 29 |  Sword & Shield | Sword & Shield Booster Box 36 packs · $2.65 EV per pack | $688.99 | $95.50 | 0.14× | $60.24 | $95.50 | 21% | 86% | era default (SWSH) | 0 |
| 30 |  Silver Tempest | Silver Tempest Booster Box 36 packs · $1.86 EV per pack | $519.04 | $67.07 | 0.13× | $39.85 | $67.07 | 19% | 97% | published | 0 |
| 31 |  Fusion Strike | Fusion Strike Booster Box 36 packs · $3.33 EV per pack | $969.55 | $119.74 | 0.12× | $84.16 | $119.74 | 55% | 88% | published | 0 |
| 32 |  Lost Origin | Lost Origin Booster Box 36 packs · $2.22 EV per pack | $732.73 | $79.88 | 0.11× | $49.20 | $79.88 | 13% | 96% | published | 0 |
| 33 |  Evolving Skies | Evolving Skies Booster Box 36 packs · $5.77 EV per pack | $2,450 | $207.87 | 0.08× | $158.69 | $207.87 | 43% | 81% | published | 0 |
| 34 | Evolving Skies | Evolving Skies Half Booster Box 18 packs · $5.77 EV per pack | $1,595 | $103.94 | 0.07× | $79.35 | $103.94 | 43% | 56% | published | 0 |
Sorted by EV ratio, highest first. Market = TCGplayer market price for the sealed product. EV (gross) = packs × EV per pack at current singles prices. Net EV assumes you sell every card worth $1 or more on a marketplace (15% fee, $1 shipping each) and treat the rest as bulk. EV last recomputed 3m ago. Sealed listings priced below market appear in the sealed deals feed; the full method is on the methodology page.
Open or hold?
Open when the ratio is close to 1.0, you enjoy the process, and you would sell the hits quickly (net EV is the number that matters then). Hold when the ratio is well under 0.7 and the set is out of print: the sealed premium tends to grow as singles supply dries up, and an unopened box keeps every option open. Neither is financial advice; both are arithmetic on today’s prices.
Where the price matters
The board uses the TCGplayer market price. If you can buy the same product below that, your personal EV ratio is higher. Compare with the break-even column: a listing landing under that price is positive-EV on paper. Set a sealed alert to hear when one shows up.