Sword & Shield Elite Trainer Box Plus [Zacian] – price, EV & deals

From Vivid Voltage · Sword & Shield

$261.11TCGplayer market · updated 2h ago0.08×

Listings range $234.00 – $500.00, mid $264.00

Product type: Elite Trainer Box
Packs: 9 packs
Cards per pack: 10
Released: Nov 13, 2020

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Price history last 180 days

Market$261.11One daily snapshot so far — the line fills in as TCGplayer market prices are captured each day (up to 180 days shown).

Expected value of opening

0.08×computed Sep 15, 2026

Well below break-even: opening returns only about 8% of the $261.11 price in raw card value. Hold sealed for appreciation or buy singles; do not open this expecting to recover the cost.

EV per pack: $2.26; 9 packs per elite trainer box
EV gross: $20.38; raw TCGplayer market value of the average pulls
EV net: $12.20; after 15% fees and $1 shipping per card; 0.05× price
Break-even price: $20.38; pay less than this and opening beats buying singles on average
Chase share: 23%; share of hit value from top-tier rarities (SIR, hyper, secret)
P(at least one top hit): 66%; in the whole elite trainer box
Hit rate per pack: 11%; illustration rare or better
Pull rates: Published; source: published

Per-rarity contribution to EV per pack. Mean price is the average TCGplayer market of every card at that rarity in the set.
Rarity	Cards	Pull rate	Mean price	EV / pack	Top card
Amazing Rare	6	1 in 18.5 packs	$9.22	$0.50	Rayquaza #138 · $24.93
Rare Ultra	20	1 in 25 packs	$7.46	$0.30	Pikachu V #170 · $47.05
Rare Rainbow	12	1 in 74.5 packs	$21.13	$0.28	Pikachu VMAX #188 · $175.25
Rare Holo VMAX	6	1 in 23.5 packs	$3.54	$0.15	Pikachu VMAX #44 · $13.38
Rare Holo V	11	1 in 8 packs	$0.98	$0.12	Pikachu V #43 · $2.35
Rare Secret	6	1 in 93 packs	$3.24	$0.03	Galarian Obstagoon #198 · $7.20
Guaranteed slots	—	every pack	—	$0.88	rare slot, reverse holo, commons and uncommons at bulk value

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Every active eBay listing matched to this product is compared against the TCGplayer market price (currently $261.11), shipping included. A listing only counts as a deal when it lands at least 12% below that baseline with a confident card, condition and variant match — seller “was” prices are ignored. Nothing qualifies at the moment; listings are re-checked every 15 minutes.

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Other Vivid Voltage sealed products

Product	Type	Packs	Market	EV (gross)	EV ratio	Deals
Alakazam V Box Case	Case	—	—	—	n/a	—
Fall 2020 Collector's Chest Tin	Tin	5	$85.84	$11.32	0.13×	—
Alakazam V Box	Collection Box	—	$60.71	—	n/a	—