Is Twilight Masquerade worth opening? EV, pull rates, chase cards

Verdict

No Twilight Masquerade product holds its price in raw card value: EV ratios run from about 0.12 to about 0.38. As of October 21, 2026 a booster box costs about $336 and holds about $126 of expected raw card value, roughly 38 cents per dollar, against 30 to 35 cents for a typical box. The Greninja ex Special Illustration Rare, at about $297, carries the set. It costs a little less than a box and, if its tier is printed evenly, is roughly a 1 in 946 pack pull. Loose packs cost about $9.26 each and the booster box works out to about $9.35 a pack. The Elite Trainer Box, at a ratio of about 0.30, is well above the usual range for its format, and the booster bundle has the highest price per pack of the three main formats.

What Twilight Masquerade is

Twilight Masquerade released on May 24, 2024 as a regular expansion in the Scarlet & Violet series. The printed checklist is 167 cards and the full set is 226.

The rarity ladder is the familiar Scarlet & Violet one: 14 Double Rares (the regular ex cards), 21 Ultra Rares, 21 Illustration Rares, 11 Special Illustration Rares and six gold Hyper Rares. The set also has six ACE SPEC Rares, powerful cards limited to one per deck.

Pullnomics tracks the 36-pack booster box, an 18-pack half booster box, the nine-pack Elite Trainer Box and its eleven-pack Pokémon Center version, the six-pack booster bundle, a four-pack Build & Battle Box, blisters, and loose and sleeved packs, all listed on the Twilight Masquerade set page.

The numbers

Here is where the set stands today.

All 226 cards are priced, and as of October 21, 2026, the median is 21 cents, so more than half of the set is bulk. An earlier version of this page gave the median as about 31 cents, a figure that valued each card at its dearest printing rather than its standard one. Twenty-four cards clear $10 and three clear $50: Greninja ex, Perrin and the Eevee Illustration Rare. As of October 21, 2026, one of every card costs about $1,171 at market.

As of October 21, 2026, the 11 Special Illustration Rares hold about 59 percent of that total and the 21 Illustration Rares about 25 percent. So 32 cards carry about 84 percent of the value, and Greninja ex alone is just over a quarter.

Sealed EV by product

Expected value, or EV, prices a product's cards at their average raw market value, and the methodology shows how it is built. This table is live and recomputed daily, with every other set on the sealed EV board.

A Twilight Masquerade pack is worth about $3.51 in expected value wherever it comes from, so products differ only in price per pack and therefore in EV ratio (gross EV divided by market price).

Loose booster packs have the highest ratio, about 0.38 at roughly $9.26 each. The booster box is level with them to two decimal places: about $336 for 36 packs is roughly $9.35 a pack, a ratio of about 0.38. The half booster box, 18 packs at about $200, is roughly $11.10 a pack, a ratio of about 0.32.

The Elite Trainer Box is about $106 for nine packs, roughly $11.79 a pack, a ratio of about 0.30. That is well above the 15 to 20 cents of raw card value per dollar that a typical Elite Trainer Box holds. Nine loose packs cost about $83, so about $23 of the price is for the box and accessories.

The booster bundle, at about $76 for six packs, is roughly $12.75 a pack, more per pack than the Elite Trainer Box. Its ratio of about 0.28 is ordinary for a bundle, but six loose packs cost about $56. Of the three main formats, it has the highest price per pack and the lowest ratio.

The lowest ratios belong to the premium checklane blisters: about $25 to $30 for a single pack, ratios of roughly 0.12 to 0.14. The set is more than two years old, and sealed prices on older sets include a premium for the sealed product itself.

Once a 15 percent marketplace fee and $1 of postage on every card worth $1 or more come off, net EV for the booster box is about $82.25, about a quarter of its price. Chase share, the slice of hit EV that comes from the rarest tiers, is only about 31 percent. The Illustration Rare slot is the reason: a mean of about $14.16 at 1 in 13 packs is worth about $1.09 a pack, more than the Special Illustration Rare slot at about 73 cents ($62.65 divided by 86).

Chase cards

The top of the price list looks like this right now.

Greninja ex #214 carries the set at about $297 for a raw Near Mint copy, about 43 percent of the value of its whole tier. Perrin #220 is second at about $153. Then the tier falls away quickly, from Bloodmoon Ursaluna ex at about $44 and Carmine at about $43 down to Teal Mask Ogerpon ex at about $20, then Wellspring Mask Ogerpon ex at about $15 and two more that average about $11. Without Greninja ex and Perrin, the other nine average about $27.

The Illustration Rares are the pleasant surprise. Eevee #188 is the third most valuable card in the set at about $71, Chansey is about $44, and Hisuian Growlithe and Tatsugiri are in the $20s. The other 17 average about $8.

The six ACE SPEC cards average about $4.31, and Unfair Stamp at about $16 is the only one with real value; the other five average about $2. Ultra Rares average about $3.76, Hyper Rares about $7.03 and Double Rares about 93 cents.

Pull rates

These rates are measured for this set: midpoints of published pack-opening counts, not a Scarlet & Violet era average. The pull rates guide puts them beside other sets.

A 36-pack booster box averages about six Double Rares, nearly three Illustration Rares, two or three Ultra Rares and almost two ACE SPEC cards. About one pack in five holds a hit above Double Rare, which gives an Elite Trainer Box about an 86 percent chance of at least one.

The Special Illustration Rare, this set's main chase tier, comes about once in 86 packs. A box has about a 34 percent chance of one, so about two boxes in three contain none. An Elite Trainer Box is about a 10 percent shot and a bundle about 7 percent. In dollars, 86 packs at the box price of $9.35 cost about $804, and the average card in the tier is worth about $63.

With 11 cards in the tier, Greninja ex is roughly a 1 in 946 pack pull if the tier is printed evenly, an assumption the datasets do not verify. That is about 26 booster boxes, or about $8,840, for a card that costs about $297. The gold Hyper Rares are the hardest tier at about 1 in 146 packs, a 22 percent chance per box, and they average about $7.

Who should open it and who should buy singles

Players: an ACE SPEC is limited to one per deck, so a deck uses one copy. Unfair Stamp is about $16 as a single and the other five average about $2. An ACE SPEC of any kind comes about once in 20 packs, which is about $187 of packs at the box price.

Chase hunters: Greninja ex costs a little less than one booster box, about $297 against about $336, and if the tier is printed evenly a box has a little under a 4 percent chance of containing it.

Set collectors: as of October 21, 2026, one of every card is about $1,171 as singles, less than the price of four booster boxes, and four boxes produce fewer than two of the 11 Special Illustration Rares on average.

Pack openers see more raw card value per dollar here than in a typical set: nearly every box has several hits, and the Illustration Rare slot alone averages about $39 a box. By price per pack, loose packs are about $9.26, the booster box about $9.35, the half booster box about $11.10, the Elite Trainer Box about $11.79 and the booster bundle about $12.75, while a premium checklane blister is $25 to $30 for its single pack. About $23 of the Elite Trainer Box price is for the box and accessories. Booster box vs ETB vs bundle covers that comparison across sets. Opening sealed product is entertainment with some resale value.

How to buy it cheaper

The test is the one on the methodology page. A listing counts as below market only when item price plus shipping, its landed price, comes in 12 percent or more below the market price. A seller's "was $X" claim is ignored.

Each card and product page, code cards aside, lists the TCGplayer market price with its history and the price that sits 12 percent below market, plus two eBay buttons, except that, as of October 8, 2026, a page whose market price is under $5, more than 10 percent above the highest TCGplayer listing or more than 25 percent above the middle one shows no below-market price and only the uncapped button. The first button opens eBay's own search results: Buy It Now listings from US sellers, sorted by price plus shipping, with proxies, lots, code cards and look-alike products excluded and the item price capped at 12 percent under market. The second runs the same search with no cap. These are affiliate links. Since September 23, 2026, the block below lists the best-scored of this set's eBay listings that are matched and scored at least 12 percent under market; if the site's eBay scan were off, it would show eBay searches for the set's main sealed products instead.

An empty result on the capped button means nobody is listing below market at that moment. The uncapped button then shows what sellers are asking, and saving that search on eBay ("Save this search") gets eBay to email new matches. Because the cap is on the item price, shipping is yours to add. With the booster box at about $336, the line is about $296 landed.

For singles, condition decides whether a listing is scored at all. Site prices are raw Near Mint, and since October 8, 2026 the method scores only a card listing stated as Near Mint: a played copy, or one whose listing states no condition, gets no Deal Score, because the site has no sourced price for a played copy. For a Near Mint Greninja ex the line is about $262 landed. Greninja ex is also the only card in the set that, at its October 21, 2026 price, reaches the $200 threshold of eBay's Authenticity Guarantee for trading cards sold in the US.

Bottom line

A Twilight Masquerade booster box sits a little above the typical box, which still means about $126 of expected raw card value in a $336 box. Its strength is depth: 21 Illustration Rares averaging about $14.16 keep ordinary boxes from feeling empty. Its headline card is another matter, since Greninja ex is roughly a 1 in 946 pull on an even-print assumption and costs a little less than a box. Loose packs cost about $9.26 each, the booster box works out to about $9.35 a pack, and the booster bundle, at about $12.75, has the highest price per pack of the three main formats. For Greninja ex, Perrin or Eevee as singles, start at the set page, pick the card and use its capped eBay button to see whether a copy is listed under market.