Twilight Masquerade Premium Checklane Blister [Porygon] – price, EV & deals

From Twilight Masquerade · Scarlet & Violet

$24.99TCGplayer market · updated 2h ago0.15×

Listings range $24.99 – $74.99, mid $24.99

Product type: Blister
Packs: 1 pack
Cards per pack: 10
Released: May 24, 2024

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Price history last 180 days

Market$24.99One daily snapshot so far — the line fills in as TCGplayer market prices are captured each day (up to 180 days shown).

Expected value of opening

0.15×computed Sep 15, 2026

Well below break-even: opening returns only about 15% of the $24.99 price in raw card value. Hold sealed for appreciation or buy singles; do not open this expecting to recover the cost.

EV per pack: $3.77; 1 packs per blister
EV gross: $3.77; raw TCGplayer market value of the average pulls
EV net: $2.50; after 15% fees and $1 shipping per card; 0.10× price
Break-even price: $3.77; pay less than this and opening beats buying singles on average
Chase share: 31%; share of hit value from top-tier rarities (SIR, hyper, secret)
P(at least one top hit): 20%; in the whole blister
Hit rate per pack: 20%; illustration rare or better
Pull rates: Published; source: published

Per-rarity contribution to EV per pack. Mean price is the average TCGplayer market of every card at that rarity in the set.
Rarity	Cards	Pull rate	Mean price	EV / pack	Top card
Illustration Rare	21	1 in 13 packs	$16.49	$1.27	Eevee #188 · $92.45
Special Illustration Rare	11	1 in 86 packs	$70.81	$0.82	Greninja ex #214 · $352.38
Ultra Rare	21	1 in 15 packs	$4.22	$0.28	Greninja ex #198 · $14.36
ACE SPEC Rare	6	1 in 20 packs	$4.50	$0.23	Unfair Stamp #165 · $16.16
Double Rare	14	1 in 6 packs	$1.17	$0.19	Teal Mask Ogerpon ex #25 · $3.12
Hyper Rare	6	1 in 146 packs	$7.21	$0.05	Buddy-Buddy Poffin #223 · $11.69
Guaranteed slots	—	every pack	—	$0.93	rare slot, reverse holo, commons and uncommons at bulk value

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Every active eBay listing matched to this product is compared against the TCGplayer market price (currently $24.99), shipping included. A listing only counts as a deal when it lands at least 12% below that baseline with a confident card, condition and variant match — seller “was” prices are ignored. Nothing qualifies at the moment; listings are re-checked every 15 minutes.

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Other Twilight Masquerade sealed products

Product	Type	Packs	Market	EV (gross)	EV ratio	Deals
Twilight Masqueade Half Booster Box	Booster Box	18	$196.88	$67.94	0.35×	—
Twilight Masquerade Booster Box	Booster Box	36	$356.09	$135.88	0.38×	—
Twilight Masquerade Booster Bundle	Booster Bundle	6	$73.57	$22.65	0.31×	—
Twilight Masquerade Booster Pack	Booster Pack	1	$9.09	$3.77	0.42×	—
Twilight Masquerade Booster Pack Art Bundle [Set of 4]	Booster Pack	4	$36.98	$15.10	0.41×	—
Twilight Masquerade Booster Box Case	Case	216	$2,173	$815.29	0.38×	—
Twilight Masquerade 3 Pack Blister [Revavroom]	Blister	3	$34.79	$11.32	0.33×	—
Twilight Masquerade 3 Pack Blister [Snorlax]	Blister	3	$44.04	$11.32	0.26×	—