Open or Hold: the sealed EV board
Every English booster bundle with a pack count, pull rates and a TCGplayer market price, ranked by how much card value you can expect to pull per dollar spent. EV is computed from the set’s current singles prices, so it moves with the market. Ratios above 1.0 are the exception, not the rule; read the notes below before opening anything.
What EV means here
Expected value is the average TCGplayer market value of the cards inside a product if you opened thousands of them. For each rarity we take the set’s published pull rate (one hit per N packs), multiply by the mean market price of that rarity in the set, and add a small baseline for the guaranteed rare, reverse and common slots. Multiply by the pack count and you have EV (gross). Net EV then removes a 15% marketplace fee and $1 shipping per card you would actually sell, and counts anything under $1 as bulk.
Why ratios below 1.0 are normal
Sealed product carries a premium over its contents: sellers price in the gambling appeal, the unopened-collectible value and the fact that most people never sell their pulls. Right now the median booster box on this board returns 0.29× its market price in expected card value. A ratio near or above 1.0 is rare and usually means the singles market has run ahead of the sealed price, or the box is being dumped. Anything under 0.7 is entertainment, not investment.
How to read chase share and P(≥1 hit)
Chase share is the fraction of hit EV that comes from the rarest tiers (Special Illustration Rare, Hyper Rare, Secret). A 60% chase share means most of the value is locked in cards that appear once in 80 to 1,300 packs; the median box will underperform the EV. P(≥1 hit) is the chance of at least one Illustration Rare or better anywhere in the product, so it is close to 100% for boxes and much lower for single packs. Rows marked era default use era-average pull rates because nobody has published counts for that set yet; treat those EVs as rough. Full method in Methodology.
Cheapest EV per dollar right now
Across all product types · published pull rates only
#1 · Booster PackPaldea Evolved Fun PackPaldea Evolved0.68×$0.68 of EV per $1market $7.71 · EV $5.21 · net $3.79
#2 · Booster PackJourney Together Fun PackJourney Together0.65×$0.65 of EV per $1market $3.93 · EV $2.54 · net $1.50
#3 · Booster BoxTemporal Forces Booster BoxTemporal Forces0.54×$0.54 of EV per $1market $316.50 · EV $171.97 · net $118.93
Booster bundles by EV ratio
33 products · median ratio 0.28× · 2 at or above 1.0× · 29 with published pull rates
| # | Set | Product | Market | EV (gross) | EV ratio | Net EV | Break-even | Chase share | P(≥1 hit) | Pull rates | Deals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  White Flare | White Flare Booster Bundle 6 packs · $82.57 EV per pack | $88.86 | $495.45 | 5.58× | $252.35 | $495.45 | 29% | 63% | era default (SV) | 0 |
| 2 |  Black Bolt | Black Bolt Booster Bundle 6 packs · $91.15 EV per pack | $99.74 | $546.91 | 5.48× | $278.59 | $546.91 | 32% | 63% | era default (SV) | 0 |
| 3 |  Shrouded Fable | Shrouded Fable Booster Bundle 6 packs · $4.56 EV per pack | $58.46 | $27.36 | 0.47× | $20.49 | $27.36 | 21% | 59% | published | 0 |
| 4 |  Prismatic Evolutions | Prismatic Evolutions Booster Bundle 6 packs · $5.82 EV per pack | $91.97 | $34.92 | 0.38× | $23.59 | $34.92 | 87% | 51% | published | 0 |
| 5 |  Ascended Heroes | Ascended Heroes Booster Bundle 6 packs · $5.30 EV per pack | $85.30 | $31.78 | 0.37× | $23.56 | $31.78 | 62% | 79% | published | 0 |
| 6 |  151 | 151 Booster Bundle 6 packs · $10.57 EV per pack | $174.13 | $63.44 | 0.36× | $48.86 | $63.44 | 43% | 70% | published | 0 |
| 7 |  Perfect Order | Perfect Order Booster Bundle 6 packs · $2.26 EV per pack | $37.21 | $13.55 | 0.36× | $8.70 | $13.55 | 50% | 74% | published | 0 |
| 8 |  Pitch Black | Pitch Black Booster Bundle 6 packs · $2.34 EV per pack | $39.45 | $14.06 | 0.36× | $8.76 | $14.06 | 49% | 70% | published | 0 |
| 9 |  Chaos Rising | Chaos Rising Booster Bundle 6 packs · $2.12 EV per pack | $36.41 | $12.71 | 0.35× | $7.67 | $12.71 | 55% | 67% | published | 0 |
| 10 |  Journey Together | Journey Together Booster Bundle 6 packs · $2.54 EV per pack | $46.42 | $15.22 | 0.33× | $9.01 | $15.22 | 36% | 67% | published | 0 |
| 11 |  Temporal Forces | Temporal Forces Booster Bundle 6 packs · $4.78 EV per pack | $90.02 | $28.66 | 0.32× | $19.82 | $28.66 | 16% | 75% | published | 0 |
| 12 | Black Bolt | Black Bolt Booster Bundle Display 6 packs · $91.15 EV per pack | $1,765 | $546.91 | 0.31× | $278.59 | $546.91 | 32% | 63% | era default (SV) | 0 |
| 13 |  Twilight Masquerade | Twilight Masquerade Booster Bundle 6 packs · $3.77 EV per pack | $73.57 | $22.65 | 0.31× | $15.01 | $22.65 | 31% | 73% | published | 0 |
| 14 | White Flare | White Flare Booster Bundle Display 6 packs · $82.57 EV per pack | $1,625 | $495.45 | 0.30× | $252.35 | $495.45 | 29% | 63% | era default (SV) | 0 |
| 15 |  Stellar Crown | Stellar Crown Booster Bundle 6 packs · $3.66 EV per pack | $72.23 | $21.94 | 0.30× | $14.49 | $21.94 | 16% | 73% | published | 0 |
| 16 |  Destined Rivals | Destined Rivals Booster Bundle 6 packs · $3.33 EV per pack | $65.98 | $19.99 | 0.30× | $14.18 | $19.99 | 58% | 47% | published | 0 |
| 17 |  Mega Evolution | Mega Evolution Booster Bundle 6 packs · $3.01 EV per pack | $63.91 | $18.04 | 0.28× | $11.74 | $18.04 | 44% | 72% | published | 0 |
| 18 |  Phantasmal Flames | Phantasmal Flames Booster Bundle 6 packs · $3.79 EV per pack | $84.08 | $22.73 | 0.27× | $16.35 | $22.73 | 72% | 73% | published | 0 |
| 19 |  Surging Sparks | Surging Sparks Booster Bundle (Retail) 6 packs · $2.57 EV per pack | $62.08 | $15.39 | 0.25× | $10.67 | $15.39 | 51% | 63% | published | 0 |
| 20 |  Paldea Evolved | Paldea Evolved Booster Bundle 6 packs · $5.21 EV per pack | $127.58 | $31.23 | 0.24× | $22.76 | $31.23 | 21% | 71% | published | 0 |
| 21 | Surging Sparks | Surging Sparks Booster Bundle (LGS) 6 packs · $2.57 EV per pack | $63.18 | $15.39 | 0.24× | $10.67 | $15.39 | 51% | 63% | published | 0 |
| 22 | Prismatic Evolutions | Prismatic Evolutions Booster Bundle + Surprise Box Bundle (Sam's Club) 6 packs · $5.82 EV per pack | $143.64 | $34.92 | 0.24× | $23.59 | $34.92 | 87% | 51% | published | 0 |
| 23 |  Paradox Rift | Paradox Rift Booster Bundle 6 packs · $3.44 EV per pack | $88.57 | $20.64 | 0.23× | $13.94 | $20.64 | 18% | 68% | published | 0 |
| 24 |  Paldean Fates | Paldean Fates Booster Bundle 6 packs · $6.46 EV per pack | $168.27 | $38.77 | 0.23× | $28.56 | $38.77 | 59% | 96% | published | 0 |
| 25 |  Scarlet & Violet | Scarlet & Violet Booster Bundle 6 packs · $3.27 EV per pack | $105.27 | $19.62 | 0.19× | $13.18 | $19.62 | 28% | 70% | published | 0 |
| 26 |  Obsidian Flames | Obsidian Flames Booster Bundle 6 packs · $3.60 EV per pack | $119.74 | $21.58 | 0.18× | $14.34 | $21.58 | 39% | 70% | published | 0 |
| 27 |  Silver Tempest | Silver Tempest Booster Bundle 6 packs · $1.86 EV per pack | $114.06 | $11.18 | 0.10× | $6.64 | $11.18 | 19% | 43% | published | 0 |
| 28 |  Lost Origin | Lost Origin Booster Bundle 6 packs · $2.22 EV per pack | $202.15 | $13.31 | 0.07× | $8.20 | $13.31 | 13% | 41% | published | 0 |
| 29 |  Crown Zenith | Crown Zenith Booster Bundle 6 packs · $1.71 EV per pack | $218.99 | $10.25 | 0.05× | $6.06 | $10.25 | 52% | 25% | published | 0 |
| 30 | 151 | 151 Booster Bundle Display 6 packs · $10.57 EV per pack | $1,898 | $63.44 | 0.03× | $48.86 | $63.44 | 43% | 70% | published | 0 |
| 31 | Paldean Fates | Paldean Fates Booster Bundle Display 6 packs · $6.46 EV per pack | $1,573 | $38.77 | 0.02× | $28.56 | $38.77 | 59% | 96% | published | 0 |
| 32 | Prismatic Evolutions | Prismatic Evolutions Booster Bundle Display 6 packs · $5.82 EV per pack | $1,915 | $34.92 | 0.02× | $23.59 | $34.92 | 87% | 51% | published | 0 |
| 33 | Ascended Heroes | Ascended Heroes Booster Bundle Display 6 packs · $5.30 EV per pack | $2,255 | $31.78 | 0.01× | $23.56 | $31.78 | 62% | 79% | published | 0 |
Sorted by EV ratio, highest first. Market = TCGplayer market price for the sealed product. EV (gross) = packs × EV per pack at current singles prices. Net EV assumes you sell every card worth $1 or more on a marketplace (15% fee, $1 shipping each) and treat the rest as bulk. EV last recomputed 47m ago. Sealed listings priced below market appear in the sealed deals feed; the full method is on the methodology page.
Open or hold?
Open when the ratio is close to 1.0, you enjoy the process, and you would sell the hits quickly (net EV is the number that matters then). Hold when the ratio is well under 0.7 and the set is out of print: the sealed premium tends to grow as singles supply dries up, and an unopened box keeps every option open. Neither is financial advice; both are arithmetic on today’s prices.
Where the price matters
The board uses the TCGplayer market price. If you can buy the same product below that, your personal EV ratio is higher. Compare with the break-even column: a listing landing under that price is positive-EV on paper. Set a sealed alert to hear when one shows up.