Box value board

Box value is the expected value (EV) of the cards inside a sealed product against its price; the guides call this page the sealed EV board. English booster bundles from Sword & Shield on with a known pack count and a market price are ranked by it. 0.45 means a product holds 45 cents of cards per dollar on average, at today’s market prices; under 1.00 is normal.

Cheapest EV per dollar right now

Boxes, ETBs, bundles and packs · published pull rates only

#1 · Booster Bundle
Shrouded Fable Booster Bundle
Shrouded Fable
0.52×$0.52 of EV per $1
market $53.62 · EV $27.86 · net $19.67
#2 · Booster Bundle
30th Celebration Booster Bundle
30th Celebration
0.51×$0.51 of EV per $1
market $67.91 · EV $34.56 · net $21.03
#3 · Booster Pack
30th Celebration Booster Pack
30th Celebration
0.50×$0.50 of EV per $1
market $11.55 · EV $5.76 · net $3.50

Booster bundles by EV ratio

27 products · median ratio 0.28× · 0 at or above 1.0× · 25 with published pull rates · 7 active sealed deals

#	Set	Product	Market	EV (gross)	EV ratio	Net EV	Break-even	Chase share	P(≥1 hit)	Pull rates	Deals
1	Shrouded Fable	Shrouded Fable Booster Bundle 6 packs · $8.94 a pack · $4.64 EV per pack · $27.86 in all	$53.62	$27.86	0.52×	$19.67	$27.86	19%	70%	published +10% era	0
2	30th Celebration	30th Celebration Booster Bundle 6 packs · $11.32 a pack · $5.76 EV per pack · $34.56 in all	$67.91	$34.56	0.51×	$21.03	$34.56	39%	89%	published	3
3	Ascended Heroes	Ascended Heroes Booster Bundle 6 packs · $12.31 a pack · $4.24 EV per pack · $25.44 in all	$73.87	$25.44	0.34×	$16.96	$25.44	58%	79%	published +5% era	1
4	Perfect Order	Perfect Order Booster Bundle 6 packs · $6.38 a pack · $2.19 EV per pack · $13.16 in all	$38.25	$13.16	0.34×	$7.55	$13.16	42%	74%	published +6% era	0
5	Pitch Black	Pitch Black Booster Bundle 6 packs · $6.28 a pack · $2.12 EV per pack · $12.72 in all	$37.66	$12.72	0.34×	$7.34	$12.72	47%	70%	published	0
6	151	151 Booster Bundle 6 packs · $27.18 a pack · $9.05 EV per pack · $54.29 in all	$163.10	$54.29	0.33×	$40.84	$54.29	42%	70%	published	1
7	Journey Together	Journey Together Booster Bundle 6 packs · $6.86 a pack · $2.25 EV per pack · $13.53 in all	$41.14	$13.53	0.33×	$7.63	$13.53	36%	67%	published	0
8	Destined Rivals	Destined Rivals Booster Bundle 6 packs · $9.44 a pack · $3.01 EV per pack · $18.06 in all	$56.66	$18.06	0.32×	$11.74	$18.06	48%	65%	published +11% era	1
9	Chaos Rising	Chaos Rising Booster Bundle 6 packs · $6.20 a pack · $1.91 EV per pack · $11.45 in all	$37.23	$11.45	0.31×	$6.46	$11.45	52%	67%	published	0
10	Temporal Forces	Temporal Forces Booster Bundle 6 packs · $14.56 a pack · $4.41 EV per pack · $26.43 in all	$87.39	$26.43	0.30×	$17.91	$26.43	16%	75%	published	0
11	Prismatic Evolutions	Prismatic Evolutions Booster Bundle 6 packs · $12.88 a pack · $3.87 EV per pack · $23.20 in all	$77.28	$23.20	0.30×	$16.45	$23.20	86%	51%	published	0
12	Stellar Crown	Stellar Crown Booster Bundle 6 packs · $11.66 a pack · $3.47 EV per pack · $20.83 in all	$69.97	$20.83	0.30×	$13.45	$20.83	17%	73%	published	0
13	Surging Sparks	Surging Sparks Booster Bundle (Retail) 6 packs · $9.08 a pack · $2.69 EV per pack · $16.14 in all	$54.50	$16.14	0.30×	$9.74	$16.14	44%	73%	published +10% era	0
14	Phantasmal Flames	Phantasmal Flames Booster Bundle 6 packs · $12.27 a pack · $3.40 EV per pack · $20.40 in all	$73.63	$20.40	0.28×	$13.50	$20.40	66%	73%	published +6% era	0
15	Twilight Masquerade	Twilight Masquerade Booster Bundle 6 packs · $12.74 a pack · $3.39 EV per pack · $20.31 in all	$76.46	$20.31	0.27×	$13.15	$20.31	30%	73%	published	0
16	Crown Zenith	Crown Zenith Booster Bundle 6 packs · $35.84 a pack · $9.47 EV per pack · $56.85 in all	$215.07	$56.85	0.26×	$42.41	$56.85	18%	94%	published +2% era	0
17	Mega Evolution	Mega Evolution Booster Bundle 6 packs · $10.84 a pack · $2.78 EV per pack · $16.70 in all	$65.06	$16.70	0.26×	$10.42	$16.70	44%	72%	published	0
18	Surging Sparks	Surging Sparks Booster Bundle (LGS) 6 packs · $10.97 a pack · $2.69 EV per pack · $16.14 in all	$65.82	$16.14	0.25×	$9.74	$16.14	44%	73%	published +10% era	0
19	White Flare	White Flare Booster Bundle 6 packs · $14.47 a pack · $3.45 EV per pack · $20.72 in all · era-default pull rates, treat as an estimate	$86.84	$20.72	0.24×	$14.20	$20.72	29%	63%	era default (SV)	0
20	Black Bolt	Black Bolt Booster Bundle 6 packs · $15.66 a pack · $3.63 EV per pack · $21.76 in all · era-default pull rates, treat as an estimate	$93.99	$21.76	0.23×	$15.17	$21.76	32%	63%	era default (SV)	0
21	Paldean Fates	Paldean Fates Booster Bundle 6 packs · $27.98 a pack · $6.41 EV per pack · $38.44 in all	$167.91	$38.44	0.23×	$27.36	$38.44	57%	96%	published +3% era	0
22	Paldea Evolved	Paldea Evolved Booster Bundle 6 packs · $21.10 a pack · $4.69 EV per pack · $28.12 in all	$126.60	$28.12	0.22×	$20.13	$28.12	21%	71%	published	0
23	Paradox Rift	Paradox Rift Booster Bundle 6 packs · $15.31 a pack · $3.20 EV per pack · $19.18 in all	$91.86	$19.18	0.21×	$12.78	$19.18	18%	68%	published	0
24	Silver Tempest	Silver Tempest Booster Bundle 6 packs · $18.55 a pack · $3.60 EV per pack · $21.61 in all	$111.32	$21.61	0.19×	$14.22	$21.61	41%	76%	published	0
25	Scarlet & Violet	Scarlet & Violet Booster Bundle 6 packs · $17.36 a pack · $3.06 EV per pack · $18.36 in all	$104.17	$18.36	0.18×	$11.99	$18.36	27%	70%	published	0
26	Obsidian Flames	Obsidian Flames Booster Bundle 6 packs · $20.33 a pack · $3.27 EV per pack · $19.63 in all	$121.99	$19.63	0.16×	$12.58	$19.63	40%	70%	published	0
27	Lost Origin	Lost Origin Booster Bundle 6 packs · $33.23 a pack · $3.84 EV per pack · $23.02 in all	$199.39	$23.02	0.12×	$15.34	$23.02	53%	74%	published	1

Sorted by EV ratio, highest first. Market = TCGplayer market price for the sealed product. EV (gross) = packs × EV per pack at current singles prices. Net EV assumes you sell every card worth $1 or more on a marketplace (15% fee, $1 shipping each) and treat the rest as bulk. Card value counts the booster packs only, never a promo card or other extra. Every product type of one set, tins and blisters included, is on that set’s page: open the set and sort its sealed products by value per dollar. EV last recomputed Oct 30, 20:32 UTC. Sealed listings priced below market appear in the sealed deals feed; the full method is on the methodology page.

What EV means here

Expected value is the average TCGplayer market value of the cards inside a product if you opened thousands of them. For each rarity we take the set’s published pull rate (one hit per N packs), multiply by the mean market price of that rarity in the set, and add a capped baseline for the guaranteed rare, reverse and common slots. Multiply by the pack count and you have EV (gross). Net EV then removes a 15% marketplace fee and $1 shipping per card you would actually sell, and counts anything under $1 as bulk.

Why ratios below 1.0 are normal

Sealed product carries a premium over its contents. Right now the median booster box on this board holds 0.30× its market price in expected card value. A ratio near or above 1.0 is rare on this board.

How to read chase share and P(≥1 hit)

Chase share is the fraction of hit EV that comes from the rarest tiers (Special Illustration Rare, Hyper Rare, Secret, Shiny Ultra Rare, and the alternate-art tiers of the five Sword & Shield sets that have their own). A 60% chase share means most of the hit value is locked in those tiers, which run from 1 in 12 packs (Paldean Fates’ Shiny Ultra Rares) to 1 in 1,400 (Perfect Order’s Mega Hyper Rare); the median box will underperform the EV. P(≥1 hit) is the chance of at least one hit anywhere in the product: Illustration Rare or better, or a special tier with its own rate such as ACE SPEC, shiny, Radiant or gallery cards. It is higher for a box than for a single pack, but not always close to 100%: some 36-pack Sword & Shield boxes are about 86%. Rows marked era default use era-average pull rates because the site’s pull-rate source has no counts for that set; treat those EVs as rough. The sets that do have counts are on the pull-rate board. Full method in Methodology.

How to read the ratio

Near 1.00, the cards inside are worth about what the product costs, before selling fees; net EV is the figure after a 15% fee and $1 shipping per card sold. At 0.70, thirty cents of every dollar pays for the sealed product itself, not its contents. The ratio is arithmetic on today’s prices: it says nothing about where a sealed price goes next, and it is not advice to open, hold or sell.

Where the price matters

The board uses the TCGplayer market price. If you can buy the same product below that, your personal EV ratio is higher. Compare with the break-even column: a listing landing under that price costs less than the gross EV, before any cost of selling.