Shining Fates Elite Trainer Box – price, EV & deals
From Shining Fates · Sword & Shield
$148.04TCGplayer market · updated 2h ago0.08×
Listings range $124.99 – $600.00, mid $170.00
- Product type
- Elite Trainer Box
- Packs
- 9 packs
- Cards per pack
- 10
- Released
- Feb 19, 2021
Price history last 180 days
Expected value of opening
0.08×computed Sep 15, 2026Well below break-even: opening returns only about 8% of the $148.04 price in raw card value. Hold sealed for appreciation or buy singles; do not open this expecting to recover the cost.
- EV per pack
- $1.29
- 9 packs per elite trainer box
- EV gross
- $11.64
- raw TCGplayer market value of the average pulls
- EV net
- $5.37
- after 15% fees and $1 shipping per card; 0.04× price
- Break-even price
- $11.64
- pay less than this and opening beats buying singles on average
- Chase share
- 10%
- share of hit value from top-tier rarities (SIR, hyper, secret)
- P(at least one top hit)
- 58%
- in the whole elite trainer box
- Hit rate per pack
- 9%
- illustration rare or better
- Pull rates
- Published
- source: published
| Rarity | Cards | Pull rate | Mean price | EV / pack | Top card |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rare Holo VMAX | 6 | 1 in 19 packs | $2.52 | $0.13 | Ditto VMAX #51 · $4.75 |
| Amazing Rare | 3 | 1 in 19 packs | $2.46 | $0.13 | Kyogre #21 · $4.21 |
| Rare Ultra | 9 | 1 in 32 packs | $4.10 | $0.13 | Skyla #72 · $9.88 |
| Rare Holo V | 8 | 1 in 9 packs | $1.06 | $0.12 | Ditto V #50 · $1.90 |
| Rare Rainbow | 1 | 1 in 91 packs | $5.01 | $0.06 | Alcremie VMAX #73 · $5.01 |
| Guaranteed slots | — | every pack | — | $0.73 | rare slot, reverse holo, commons and uncommons at bulk value |
Model notes (2)
- no cards with rarity "Shiny Rare" in set
- no cards with rarity "Rare Secret" in set
Active eBay deals
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Every active eBay listing matched to this product is compared against the TCGplayer market price (currently $148.04), shipping included. A listing only counts as a deal when it lands at least 12% below that baseline with a confident card, condition and variant match — seller “was” prices are ignored. Nothing qualifies at the moment; listings are re-checked every 15 minutes.
Other Shining Fates sealed products
| Product | Type | Packs | Market | EV (gross) | EV ratio | Deals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Shining Fates Booster Pack | Booster Pack | 1 | $15.50 | $1.29 | 0.08× | — |
 Shining Fates Booster Pack Art Bundle [Set of 4] | Booster Pack | 4 | $59.64 | $5.17 | 0.09× | — |
 Shining Fates Collection [Pikachu V] | Collection Box | — | $65.59 | — | n/a | — |
 Shining Fates Collection [Shiny Boltund V] | Collection Box | — | $68.19 | — | n/a | — |
 Shining Fates Collection [Shiny Cramorant V] | Collection Box | — | $63.99 | — | n/a | — |