Is Shrouded Fable worth opening? EV, pull rates and chase cards

Verdict

A Shrouded Fable booster bundle holds about 50 cents of raw card value per dollar of sealed price, the highest ratio of any product in the set with a market price on the site, and more than half of a pack's value sits in a tier that turns up about once every 12 packs. As of September 22, 2026, a bundle sells for about $58.72 against about $29.55 of cards at raw market, an EV ratio of about 0.50. Across the Sealed EV board a typical booster bundle holds a little under 30 cents per dollar and a typical Elite Trainer Box about 15 to 20 cents, so both of this set's main products sit above those ranges: the Elite Trainer Box is about 0.39. The shape of the set is why. The 15 Illustration Rares average about $32.27, more than the Special Illustration Rares or the Hyper Rares do, and they contribute about $2.69 of a $4.93 pack.

What Shrouded Fable is

Shrouded Fable (set code SFA) released on August 2, 2024 in the Scarlet & Violet series. It is small: 64 cards in the printed numbering and 99 in this site's database once the cards numbered past 64 are counted, all of them priced. By rarity that is 28 Commons, 20 Uncommons, seven Rares, three ACE SPEC Rares, six Double Rares, ten Ultra Rares, 15 Illustration Rares, five Special Illustration Rares and five Hyper Rares.

It is one of the special sets with no booster box. Its packs reach buyers in Elite Trainer Boxes, a booster bundle, mini tins, collections, a three-pack blister, and on their own as loose packs. Nothing in the set holds 36 packs, so there is no box figure to measure those against.

The set's current figures are below.

The median card is about $0.32, 26 cards are $10 or more, four are $50 or more, and one of every card in the set comes to about $867.54 at market, roughly the price of between seven and eight Elite Trainer Boxes.

The chase cards

Shrouded Fable's 15 highest market prices, in order.

Persian #78, an Illustration Rare by Whisker, leads at about $75.01. Behind it comes Basic Darkness Energy #98, a Hyper Rare, at about $61.43, then three more Illustration Rares: Houndoom #66 at about $57.22, Horsea #67 at about $54.02 and Duskull #68 at about $48.28. The dearest Special Illustration Rare, Cassiopeia #94 by burari, is about $41.30.

Ten of the 15 cards above are Illustration Rares. That tier averages about $32.27 against about $30.46 for the five Hyper Rares and about $28.87 for the five Special Illustration Rares, and it holds the highest single price in the set as well. James Turner drew three of the top 15 by himself: Duskull #68, Dusclops #69 at about $28.89 and Dusknoir #70 at about $32.29.

Below those three tiers the set falls off quickly. The ten Ultra Rares average about $5.57, led by Fezandipiti ex #84 at about $11.63, the six Double Rares average about $2.31 and the three ACE SPEC Rares about $0.69. The 74 cards outside the Illustration Rare, Special Illustration Rare and Hyper Rare tiers add up to roughly $87 at market, about a tenth of the set's total.

Pull rates and what "1 in N" means

The figures below are packs per hit: the average number of packs between one card of a tier and the next. Four of the six rows are this set's own measured figures. The Double Rare and ACE SPEC Rare rows carry Scarlet & Violet era averages instead, and the block labels them that way.

An Illustration Rare arrives about once every 12 packs, an Ultra Rare about once every 30, a Special Illustration Rare about once every 57 and a Hyper Rare about once every 118. The two era-average rows stand at 1 in 6 packs for a Double Rare and 1 in 20 for an ACE SPEC Rare, and the EV uses them as they are. Every tier is listed on the Shrouded Fable pull-rates page.

Every card in a tier counts as equally likely, because the source gives one rate per tier rather than one per card. One named Illustration Rare is therefore about 1 in 180 packs, one named Ultra Rare about 1 in 300, one named Special Illustration Rare about 1 in 285 and one named Hyper Rare about 1 in 590.

About 18% of packs hold a hit of some kind, a count that leaves Double Rares out. An Elite Trainer Box of nine packs averages about 1.5 Double Rares, 0.75 Illustration Rares, 0.45 ACE SPEC Rares and 0.3 Ultra Rares, with about an 83% chance of at least one hit; a little over half contain an Illustration Rare and about one in five a Special Illustration Rare or a Hyper Rare. A six-pack bundle averages one Double Rare and half an Illustration Rare, with about a 70% chance of a hit. A two-pack mini tin is about one in three for a hit.

Sealed EV

Below, each Elite Trainer Box, bundle, blister, tin and loose pack the site has both a price and an EV for sits beside the card value of the packs it holds.

Three columns do most of the work here. The ratio is card value as a fraction of sealed price, so the bundle's 0.50 puts about $29.55 of cards behind a $58.72 product. Net EV is that gross figure after the costs of selling it on: 15% to the marketplace, a dollar of postage on every card that reaches $1, bulk treatment for the rest, which leaves about $21.26 of the bundle's $29.55. Chase share, about 0.19 on every product here that has an EV, is the portion of hit value sitting in the Special Illustration Rare and Hyper Rare slots.

A pack is worth about $4.93 gross, splitting by tier like this: Illustration Rares about $2.69, Special Illustration Rares about $0.51, Double Rares about $0.39, Hyper Rares about $0.26, Ultra Rares about $0.19 and ACE SPEC Rares about $0.03, with the last $0.87 or so covering the common, uncommon and rare slots. The low chase share follows from that split: about 55% of a pack's value comes from the tier that appears once every 12 packs, not from the tiers at 1 in 57 and 1 in 118.

Per dollar, the booster bundle leads at about 0.50, break-even about $29.55 against about $58.72. The three-pack blister is about 0.43 at about $34.67, the Fezandipiti mini tin about 0.42 at about $23.58, the Elite Trainer Box about 0.39 at about $113.73 with a break-even of about $44.33, and the set of five mini tins also about 0.39 at about $127.35 for ten packs. A loose pack is about 0.34 at about $14.60, the Pokémon Center Elite Trainer Box about 0.33 at about $165.63 for 11 packs, and the Zoroark mini tin about 0.32 at about $30.73.

Price per pack says the same in a different unit. The bundle is about $9.79 a pack, the cheapest in the set; the rest run from about $11.56 for the three-pack blister to about $15.37 for the Zoroark mini tin, with the Elite Trainer Box at about $12.64 and the set of five mini tins at about $12.74. Three mini tins, Dusknoir, Munkidori and Okidogi, have a verified count of two packs and a gross EV of about $9.85 but no market price on the site at the moment, so they are left out of the table above.

The products that carry no EV

The Greninja ex Special Illustration Collection at about $212.43, the Kingdra ex Special Illustration Collection at about $182.00 and the Kingambit Illustration Collection at about $53.16 show no EV here. Premium collections have no standard size: across the hobby they hold anywhere from five to 30 packs, and many hold packs of more than one set. This site gives a product a pack count and an EV only once its contents are verified and every pack in it belongs to the set being valued, so these three carry neither. The Mini Tin Display at about $201.89 has no pack count on the site either, so no EV is shown for it.

Who opens it and who buys singles

Players: the six Double Rares average about $2.31, with Pecharunt ex #39 highest at about $6.88. A playset of four at that average comes to roughly $9, against about $14.60 for one pack, and the era-average rate is one Double Rare every six packs. The three ACE SPEC Rares average about $0.69, topping out at Neutralization Zone #60, about $1.05.

Set collectors: one of every card runs to about $867.54. The 15 Illustration Rares are about $484 of that, the five Hyper Rares about $152 and the five Special Illustration Rares about $144, leaving roughly $87 for the other 74 cards.

Chase hunters: Persian #78 sells for about $75.01. Pulling one takes about 180 packs on average, roughly $1,760 at the bundle's $9.79 a pack. Basic Darkness Energy #98 costs about $61.43 and sits at about 1 in 590 packs, roughly $5,800 of bundles; Cassiopeia #94, about $41.30, works out to about 1 in 285 packs, roughly $2,790.

Pack openers: the bundle is six packs at about $9.79 each, about $29.55 of cards against about $58.72 of price, with about a 41% chance at an Illustration Rare; an Elite Trainer Box is nine packs at about $12.64 with about an 83% chance of a hit. The model is set out in how sealed EV works.

Buying it below market

Each Shrouded Fable sealed page lists what TCGplayer calls market, how that figure has moved over time, and the cutoff 12% under it. A listing only clears that cutoff with its shipping counted in. The block below runs an eBay search for each of the set's main sealed products, the first button for each one capped at that cutoff and the second showing every listing.

The search lands on eBay itself, already narrowed: Buy It Now only, sellers in the US, junk keywords filtered out, results ordered by price plus shipping. The same buttons repeat on each sealed page for the set. When the cap turns up nothing, eBay's own "Save this search" link will mail you later listings that match.

What counts is what a listing costs delivered. Shipping belongs in that total; a struck-through "was $X" belongs nowhere. The item has to be English, still factory sealed, and a real product rather than a repack. At 12% below market an Elite Trainer Box moves from a ratio of about 0.39 to about 0.44, and a bundle from about 0.50 to about 0.57. The Deal Score method is written out step by step at /methodology, and /sets/shrouded-fable carries the set's full sealed list.

Bottom line

Shrouded Fable keeps its value in a tier you see about once every 12 packs. As of September 22, 2026, the booster bundle holds about 50 cents of raw card value per dollar of sealed price, about $29.55 of cards for about $58.72; the Elite Trainer Box about 39 cents, about $44.33 for about $113.73; a loose pack about 34 cents. The 15 Illustration Rares average about $32.27, more than either the Special Illustration Rares or the Hyper Rares, and supply about 55% of a pack's value on their own, which is why chase share is only about 0.19. The set has no booster box, its cheapest pack is the bundle's at about $9.79, and the dearest card, Persian #78 at about $75.01, averages about 180 packs to pull.