Darkness Ablaze Single Pack Blister [Pikachu] – price, EV & deals

From Darkness Ablaze · Sword & Shield

$33.50TCGplayer market · updated 2h ago0.05×

Listings range $39.95 – $100.00, mid $49.99

Product type: Blister
Packs: 1 pack
Cards per pack: 10
Released: Aug 14, 2020

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Price history last 180 days

Market$33.50One daily snapshot so far — the line fills in as TCGplayer market prices are captured each day (up to 180 days shown).

Expected value of opening

0.05×computed Sep 15, 2026

Well below break-even: opening returns only about 5% of the $33.50 price in raw card value. Hold sealed for appreciation or buy singles; do not open this expecting to recover the cost.

EV per pack: $1.67; 1 packs per blister
EV gross: $1.67; raw TCGplayer market value of the average pulls
EV net: $0.95; after 15% fees and $1 shipping per card; 0.03× price
Break-even price: $1.67; pay less than this and opening beats buying singles on average
Chase share: 15%; share of hit value from top-tier rarities (SIR, hyper, secret)
P(at least one top hit): 5%; in the whole blister
Hit rate per pack: 5%; illustration rare or better
Pull rates: Era default; no set-specific counts yet; using swsh averages

Per-rarity contribution to EV per pack. Mean price is the average TCGplayer market of every card at that rarity in the set.
Rarity	Cards	Pull rate	Mean price	EV / pack	Top card
Rare Holo VMAX	7	1 in 22 packs	$9.59	$0.44	Charizard VMAX #20 · $43.60
Rare Holo V	14	1 in 8 packs	$2.21	$0.28	Charizard V #19 · $9.10
Rare Rainbow	7	1 in 100 packs	$10.30	$0.10	Butterfree VMAX #190 · $17.85
Rare Ultra	13	1 in 30 packs	$2.99	$0.10	Houndoom V #178 · $6.06
Rare Secret	5	1 in 100 packs	$3.96	$0.04	Rillaboom #197 · $7.38
Guaranteed slots	—	every pack	—	$0.72	rare slot, reverse holo, commons and uncommons at bulk value

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Every active eBay listing matched to this product is compared against the TCGplayer market price (currently $33.50), shipping included. A listing only counts as a deal when it lands at least 12% below that baseline with a confident card, condition and variant match — seller “was” prices are ignored. Nothing qualifies at the moment; listings are re-checked every 15 minutes.

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Other Darkness Ablaze sealed products

Product	Type	Packs	Market	EV (gross)	EV ratio	Deals
Darkness Ablaze Booster Box	Booster Box	36	$368.67	$60.13	0.16×	—
Darkness Ablaze Booster Pack	Booster Pack	1	$9.97	$1.67	0.17×	—
Darkness Ablaze Booster Box Case	Case	216	$2,250	$360.76	0.16×	—
Darkness Ablaze 3 Pack Blister [Eevee]	Blister	3	$41.49	$5.01	0.12×	—
Darkness Ablaze 3 Pack Blister [Flareon]	Blister	3	$47.17	$5.01	0.11×	—