Evolving Skies Booster Box – price, EV & deals

From Evolving Skies · Sword & Shield

$2,450TCGplayer market · updated 47m ago0.08×

Listings range $2,300 – $12,000, mid $3,000

Product type: Booster Box
Packs: 36 packs
Cards per pack: 10
Released: Aug 27, 2021

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Price history last 180 days

Market$2,442One daily snapshot so far — the line fills in as TCGplayer market prices are captured each day (up to 180 days shown).

Expected value of opening

0.08×computed Sep 15, 2026

Well below break-even: opening returns only about 8% of the $2,450 price in raw card value. Hold sealed for appreciation or buy singles; do not open this expecting to recover the cost.

EV per pack: $5.77; 36 packs per booster box
EV gross: $207.87; raw TCGplayer market value of the average pulls
EV net: $158.69; after 15% fees and $1 shipping per card; 0.06× price
Break-even price: $207.87; pay less than this and opening beats buying singles on average
Chase share: 43%; share of hit value from top-tier rarities (SIR, hyper, secret)
P(at least one top hit): 81%; in the whole booster box
Hit rate per pack: 5%; illustration rare or better
Pull rates: Published; source: published

Per-rarity contribution to EV per pack. Mean price is the average TCGplayer market of every card at that rarity in the set.
Rarity	Cards	Pull rate	Mean price	EV / pack	Top card
Rare Rainbow	22	1 in 113 packs	$233.29	$2.06	Umbreon VMAX #215 · $2,303
Rare Ultra	38	1 in 36.5 packs	$72.46	$1.99	Dragonite V #192 · $523.47
Rare Holo VMAX	15	1 in 16.5 packs	$10.04	$0.61	Umbreon VMAX #95 · $29.49
Rare Holo V	18	1 in 9 packs	$2.32	$0.26	Umbreon V #94 · $8.71
Rare Secret	12	1 in 105.5 packs	$8.16	$0.08	Darkness Energy #236 · $24.98
Guaranteed slots	—	every pack	—	$0.78	rare slot, reverse holo, commons and uncommons at bulk value

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Every active eBay listing matched to this product is compared against the TCGplayer market price (currently $2,450), shipping included. A listing only counts as a deal when it lands at least 12% below that baseline with a confident card, condition and variant match — seller “was” prices are ignored. Nothing qualifies at the moment; listings are re-checked every 15 minutes.

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Other Evolving Skies sealed products

Product	Type	Packs	Market	EV (gross)	EV ratio	Deals
Evolving Skies 3 Pack Blister [Eiscue]	Blister	3	$212.15	$17.32	0.08×	—
Evolving Skies 3 Pack Blister [Umbreon]	Blister	3	$244.24	$17.32	0.07×	—