Surging Sparks Single Pack Blister [Sinistcha] – price, EV & deals

From Surging Sparks · Scarlet & Violet

$15.12TCGplayer market · updated 2h ago0.17×

Listings range $14.99 – $15.07, mid $15.03

Product type: Blister
Packs: 1 pack
Cards per pack: 10
Released: Nov 8, 2024

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Price history last 180 days

Market$15.12One daily snapshot so far — the line fills in as TCGplayer market prices are captured each day (up to 180 days shown).

Expected value of opening

0.17×computed Sep 15, 2026

Well below break-even: opening returns only about 17% of the $15.12 price in raw card value. Hold sealed for appreciation or buy singles; do not open this expecting to recover the cost.

EV per pack: $2.57; 1 packs per blister
EV gross: $2.57; raw TCGplayer market value of the average pulls
EV net: $1.78; after 15% fees and $1 shipping per card; 0.12× price
Break-even price: $2.57; pay less than this and opening beats buying singles on average
Chase share: 51%; share of hit value from top-tier rarities (SIR, hyper, secret)
P(at least one top hit): 15%; in the whole blister
Hit rate per pack: 15%; illustration rare or better
Pull rates: Published; source: published

Per-rarity contribution to EV per pack. Mean price is the average TCGplayer market of every card at that rarity in the set.
Rarity	Cards	Pull rate	Mean price	EV / pack	Top card
Special Illustration Rare	11	1 in 85 packs	$71.00	$0.84	Pikachu ex #238 · $285.20
Illustration Rare	23	1 in 13 packs	$8.98	$0.69	Latios #203 · $35.62
Ultra Rare	21	1 in 15 packs	$3.50	$0.23	Pikachu ex #219 · $30.23
Hyper Rare	6	1 in 189 packs	$20.34	$0.11	Pikachu ex #247 · $86.06
Guaranteed slots	—	every pack	—	$0.70	rare slot, reverse holo, commons and uncommons at bulk value

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Every active eBay listing matched to this product is compared against the TCGplayer market price (currently $15.12), shipping included. A listing only counts as a deal when it lands at least 12% below that baseline with a confident card, condition and variant match — seller “was” prices are ignored. Nothing qualifies at the moment; listings are re-checked every 15 minutes.

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Other Surging Sparks sealed products

Product	Type	Packs	Market	EV (gross)	EV ratio	Deals
Surging Sparks Booster Box	Booster Box	36	$302.99	$92.37	0.30×	—
Surging Sparks Booster Bundle (LGS)	Booster Bundle	6	$63.18	$15.39	0.24×	—
Surging Sparks Booster Bundle (Retail)	Booster Bundle	6	$62.08	$15.39	0.25×	—
Surging Sparks Booster Pack	Booster Pack	1	$7.90	$2.57	0.32×	—
Surging Sparks Booster Pack Art Bundle [Set of 4]	Booster Pack	4	$34.31	$10.26	0.30×	—
Surging Sparks 3 Pack Blisters Case	Case	—	—	—	n/a	—
Surging Sparks Booster Box Case	Case	216	$2,085	$554.21	0.27×	—
Surging Sparks Booster Bundle Case (LGS)	Case	60	$1,126	$153.95	0.14×	—
Surging Sparks 3 Pack Blisters [Quagsire]	Blister	3	$42.76	$7.70	0.18×	—
Surging Sparks 3 Pack Blisters [Zapdos]	Blister	3	$46.77	$7.70	0.16×	—