Sword & Shield Booster Box – price, EV & deals

From Sword & Shield · Sword & Shield

$688.99TCGplayer market · updated 48m ago0.14×

Listings range $1,200 – $1,200, mid $1,200

Product type: Booster Box
Packs: 36 packs
Cards per pack: 10
Released: Feb 7, 2020

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Price history last 180 days

Market$689.62One daily snapshot so far — the line fills in as TCGplayer market prices are captured each day (up to 180 days shown).

Expected value of opening

0.14×computed Sep 15, 2026

Well below break-even: opening returns only about 14% of the $688.99 price in raw card value. Hold sealed for appreciation or buy singles; do not open this expecting to recover the cost.

EV per pack: $2.65; 36 packs per booster box
EV gross: $95.50; raw TCGplayer market value of the average pulls
EV net: $60.24; after 15% fees and $1 shipping per card; 0.09× price
Break-even price: $95.50; pay less than this and opening beats buying singles on average
Chase share: 21%; share of hit value from top-tier rarities (SIR, hyper, secret)
P(at least one top hit): 86%; in the whole booster box
Hit rate per pack: 5%; illustration rare or better
Pull rates: Era default; no set-specific counts yet; using swsh averages

Per-rarity contribution to EV per pack. Mean price is the average TCGplayer market of every card at that rarity in the set.
Rarity	Cards	Pull rate	Mean price	EV / pack	Top card
Rare Holo VMAX	4	1 in 22 packs	$16.74	$0.76	Snorlax VMAX #142 · $55.36
Rare Ultra	16	1 in 30 packs	$9.19	$0.31	Marnie #200 · $36.21
Rare Rainbow	8	1 in 100 packs	$23.89	$0.24	Snorlax VMAX #206 · $104.62
Rare Holo V	17	1 in 8 packs	$1.72	$0.22	Snorlax V #141 · $9.11
Rare Secret	6	1 in 100 packs	$10.83	$0.11	Zacian V #211 · $20.91
Guaranteed slots	—	every pack	—	$1.02	rare slot, reverse holo, commons and uncommons at bulk value

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Every active eBay listing matched to this product is compared against the TCGplayer market price (currently $688.99), shipping included. A listing only counts as a deal when it lands at least 12% below that baseline with a confident card, condition and variant match — seller “was” prices are ignored. Nothing qualifies at the moment; listings are re-checked every 15 minutes.

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Other Sword & Shield sealed products

No other sealed products from Sword & Shield are tracked yet.