One Piece Card Game pull rates: what is actually known (English)

Bandai publishes no One Piece pull rates. Community estimates for English boxes: about 7 Super Rares per box and a Secret Rare in about 1 box in 2.

6 min read · updated 2026-09-19 · live prices refresh daily

The short version

Bandai publishes no pull rates for the One Piece Card Game. Every figure is a community estimate from box and case openings, and the English evidence is thin: the largest sample found is about three cases (12 boxes each) of OP-17. For English boxes those estimates give about 7 Super Rares per box (6 to 8), a Secret Rare in about 1 box in 2 (0.33 to 0.67 per box), about 2 SP cards per case, a Treasure Rare about once per case at most and a manga rare about once in 4 cases; each printing is explained below. Three widely copied claims fail checking: a Secret Rare in every box, a Treasure Rare in every box, and 3 to 5 Super Rares per box, which describes Japanese boxes. The honest downside: five of the nine tiers the site counts for OP-17 are marked low confidence, and some of the most valuable printings have no known English rate at all.

No official odds, and thin evidence

Bandai's English product pages give two official numbers, $4.99 per pack (checked on the Bandai OP-13 product page) and 12 cards per pack, and nothing about odds. Bandai publishes no box MSRP, so $119.76 is only arithmetic: 24 packs at $4.99. The 24 packs per box and 12 boxes per case come from retailer listings and community guides, not from Bandai.

The largest English sample found is about three cases of OP-17, more than 1,000 packs, aggregated by one guide site, tcgtalk, which does not name the openers. Behind it sit single 12-box cases of OP-15 and OP-16. Several widely copied figures trace back to a structural model, the pack-ev table behind tcgtrading.cards, whose author calls them approximations, not counted data. About three cases cannot measure a printing that appears about once in 4 cases.

The printings, one sentence each

Alternate Art (or parallel): the same card number, rules text and stats with different artwork; recent sets add a rarer Super Alternate Art tier above it.
Leader: the card a deck is built around; Alternate Art leaders are their own tier.
SP card (Special): a special-treatment version, usually of a card from another set, keeping its original number, such as ST31-004 inside OP-17.
Manga rare: artwork taken from manga panels, the top chase printing of most main sets.
Treasure Rare (TR): a rare special printing, one card in each recent English main set.
DON!! card: the game's resource card, with alternate-art, gold and special-foil versions in recent sets.
Pandaman Art: a printing of six common and uncommon cards in OP-17, the only set with an estimate for it.
Case: 12 booster boxes, as sold by retailers; a case hit here means an SP card, manga rare, Treasure Rare or gold DON!! card.

The estimates, tier by tier

These are the community estimates the site uses for The World's Strongest Warriors (OP-17), per English box, with range and confidence; the live block adds basis and sources.

Printing	Cards in set	Estimated rate	Basis
Manga rarecase hit4 cards share this rate · low confidence: About 1 per 4 cases for the whole tier; sources range from 1 per 2 cases to 1 per 6. No counted sample exists: both itemised English cases had none.	4	1 in 48 boxes1 in 71 boxes to 1 in 24 boxes	low confidence: About 1 per 4 cases for the whole tier; sources range from 1 per 2 cases to 1 per 6. No counted sample exists: both itemised English cases had none.
SP cardcase hit11 cards share this rate · medium confidence: About 2 per case from OP-06 on, stated by four guides with no sample. An average, not a guarantee: one counted OP-16 case had 5. Whether every SP in a set is equally likely is not documented, so the median SP price is used; gold, silver and wanted-poster SP variants are much rarer and are not counted.	11	1 in 6 boxes1 in 12 boxes to 1 in 6 boxes	medium confidence: About 2 per case from OP-06 on, stated by four guides with no sample. An average, not a guarantee: one counted OP-16 case had 5. Whether every SP in a set is equally likely is not documented, so the median SP price is used; gold, silver and wanted-poster SP variants are much rarer and are not counted.
Treasure Rarecase hit1 card shares this rate · low confidence: Up to about 1 per case (three OP-17 cases and one OP-16 case). No lower bound is documented, so the low figure counts none.	1	1 in 12 boxesnone counted to 1 in 12 boxes	low confidence: Up to about 1 per case (three OP-17 cases and one OP-16 case). No lower bound is documented, so the low figure counts none.
Gold DON!! cardcase hit3 cards share this rate · low confidence: One guide's three OP-17 cases showed about 2 special DON!! cards per case, typically one gold and one it calls platinum (assumed to be TCGplayer's Special Foil), so gold is taken as about 1 per case. Single source.	3	1 in 12 boxes1 in 12 boxes to 1 in 6 boxes	low confidence: One guide's three OP-17 cases showed about 2 special DON!! cards per case, typically one gold and one it calls platinum (assumed to be TCGplayer's Special Foil), so gold is taken as about 1 per case. Single source.
Alternate Art leader6 cards share this rate · medium confidence: About 4 per case in three independent sources; one counted OP-16 case had 3. About two boxes in three have none.	6	1 in 3 boxes1 in 4 boxes to 1 in 3 boxes	medium confidence: About 4 per case in three independent sources; one counted OP-16 case had 3. About two boxes in three have none.
Alternate Art (not a leader)19 cards share this rate · medium confidence: About 1.67 alternate arts per box including leaders (guides say 2; the structural table says 16 plus 4 leaders per case), less the leader tier. How they split between Rare, Super Rare and Secret Rare alternate arts is not documented, so the median price is used: a rare, expensive Secret Rare alternate art cannot lift it.	19	1.3 per box1 per box to 1.7 per box	medium confidence: About 1.67 alternate arts per box including leaders (guides say 2; the structural table says 16 plus 4 leaders per case), less the leader tier. How they split between Rare, Super Rare and Secret Rare alternate arts is not documented, so the median price is used: a rare, expensive Secret Rare alternate art cannot lift it.
Pandaman Art6 cards share this rate · low confidence: About 6 to 8 per case in one guide's three OP-17 cases. Single source.	6	1 in 2 boxes1 in 2 boxes to 1 in 1 boxes	low confidence: About 6 to 8 per case in one guide's three OP-17 cases. Single source.
Secret Rare2 cards share this rate · low confidence: About 1 in 2 boxes. Counted English openings give 0.33 to 0.5 per box; the structural table says 8 per case (0.67). The often repeated "1 per box" is not supported for recent sets.	2	1 in 2 boxes1 in 3 boxes to 1 in 1 boxes	low confidence: About 1 in 2 boxes. Counted English openings give 0.33 to 0.5 per box; the structural table says 8 per case (0.67). The often repeated "1 per box" is not supported for recent sets.
Super Rare10 cards share this rate · medium confidence: About 7 per English box in five sources, treated as a box guarantee by the OP-17 case data. Guides quoting 3 to 5 describe Japanese boxes.	10	7 per box6 per box to 8 per box	medium confidence: About 7 per English box in five sources, treated as a box guarantee by the OP-17 case data. Guides quoting 3 to 5 describe Japanese boxes.
Rare (bulk)not in the totals26 cards share this rate · low confidence: At least one Rare per pack is the only sourced figure, so 24 per box. Shown for reference and NOT added to any total: bulk is hard to sell, and no source gives counts for commons, uncommons or base leaders. Each card is capped at $5.	26	24 per box	low confidence: At least one Rare per pack is the only sourced figure, so 24 per box. Shown for reference and NOT added to any total: bulk is hard to sell, and no source gives counts for commons, uncommons or base leaders. Each card is capped at $5.

Estimates for English boxes (24 packs of 12 cards, 12 boxes per case), last reviewed Sep 19, 2026. Bandai publishes no pull rates; a rate is shared by every card of that printing, and per-case figures are averages, not guarantees.

Sources: tcgtalk, OP-17 pull rates and case opening (about three English cases (1,000+ packs), openers not named; the largest English sample found); tcgtalk, OP-16 pull rates and case opening (one itemised English case: 5 SP, 5 SEC, 3 alternate-art leaders, 1 gold DON!!, 1 Treasure Rare, 0 manga); onepiecepacksimulator, pull rates explained (per-case structure: 4 alternate-art leaders, 2 SP from OP-06 on, manga about 1 in 5 cases; no sample stated); slab-z, rarities and pull rates guide (2026) (about 7 SR per box, SEC 1 in 3 boxes, about 2 alternate arts per box; no sample stated); pack-ev collation table (tcgtrading.cards) (a structural model its author calls approximations, not counted data: per case SR 84, SEC 8, alt art 16 + 4 leaders, SP 2, manga 0.25, gold DON!! 2); Bandai, OP-13 product page (official: USD $4.99 per pack. Bandai publishes no odds and no box MSRP).

Super Rare: about 7 (6 to 8), medium.
Alternate Art, not a leader: about 1.33 (1 to 1.67), medium; the split by rarity is not documented.
Alternate Art leader: about 0.33, or 4 per case (0.25 to 0.33), medium. About two boxes in three have none.
Pandaman Art: about 0.58 (0.5 to 0.67), low: one guide's three cases.
Secret Rare: about 0.5 (0.33 to 0.67), low.
SP card: about 0.167, or 2 per case from OP-06 on (0.083 to 0.167), medium: four guides, no sample.
Treasure Rare: about 0.083, or 1 per case at most (0 to 0.083), low; no lower bound is documented.
Gold DON!! card: about 0.083, or 1 per case (0.083 to 0.167), low, single source; for OP-13 to OP-16 the estimate is about 2 per case.
Manga rare: about 0.021, or 1 per 4 cases (0.014 to 0.042), low.

Three corrections

Secret Rare is about 1 in 2 boxes, not 1 per box. The OP-17 cases showed about 1 per 2 to 3 boxes, and the itemised OP-16 case had 5 in 12 boxes. The structural model's 8 per case (0.67 per box) is the top of the range.

Treasure Rare is about 1 per case at most. The claim of a Treasure Rare in every box is wrong: every counted case, three of OP-17 and one of OP-16, contradicts it.

3 to 5 Super Rares per box describes Japanese boxes. Japanese boxes are a different product, with fewer cards per pack and about 4 to 5 Super Rares per box. English boxes give about 7 (6 to 8) in community counts. Many online guides mix the two without saying so. Every rate here and on the site is for English boxes.

Per-case figures are averages

The one fully itemised English case, of OP-16, held 5 SP cards, 5 Secret Rares, 3 alternate-art leaders, 1 gold DON!! card, 1 Treasure Rare and no manga rare. The usual expected figures for a case are 2, 8, 4, 2, 1 and 0.25. That is two and a half times the SP average and fewer Secret Rares, leaders and gold DON!! cards. A per-case figure is an average over many cases and says nothing certain about the next one.

A tier's rate is shared by all its cards

A rate belongs to a tier, not to a card. The site's data has 11 SP cards in OP-17. At about 2 SP cards per case, any one of them averages about 0.18 copies per case: one copy in about 5.5 cases, or 66 boxes, if every SP is equally likely, which is not documented. Monkey.D.Luffy (ST31-004) (SP) is about $816 as of mid-September 2026, and 66 boxes at about $334 each is about $22,000.

What has no known rate

No English rate exists for Super Alternate Art and Super Leader Alternate Art cards, gold, silver and wanted-poster SP variants, special-foil and alternate-art DON!! cards, or anniversary cards. The site leaves them out of its expected value (EV) figures instead of guessing. The gap matters: the highest-priced OP-17 card, Monkey.D.Luffy (079) (Super Leader Alternate Art), about $1,790 as of mid-September 2026, counts for nothing in the model, so the true average is somewhat higher than shown.

From rates to two EV figures and a range

For released main sets from OP-06 on, the site multiplies each tier's per-box rate by a TCGplayer market price for the tier (the mean, or the median where the split inside a tier is not documented) and adds the results. "All tiers" is the long-run average over many boxes. "No case hit" is the average of boxes with none of the four case hits, which is most boxes; a single box is often lower still. The range reruns the all-tiers sum with every rate at its low end, then its high end.

For the OP-17 booster box, about $334 as of mid-September 2026, all tiers is about $125 and no case hit is about $62, with a range of about $82 to about $163. About half of the all-tiers figure comes from case hits that most boxes do not contain.

Bulk is in no total. The only sourced figure is at least one Rare per pack, about $9.20 of rares in an OP-17 box, shown for reference. Bulk is hard to sell, and no source gives counts for commons, uncommons or base leaders.

Set	Booster box	Market	EV, all tiers	EV ratio	EV, no case hit	Case-hit share
OP15-EB04	Adventure on Kami's Island Booster Box OP15-EB04 · EV $143.58 · $76.81 with no case hit$5.98 EV per pack	$255.36	$143.58	0.56×	$76.8130% of price	47%
OP16	The Time of Battle Booster Box OP16 · EV $86.93 · $47.28 with no case hit$3.62 EV per pack	$230.99	$86.93	0.38×	$47.2820% of price	46%
OP17	The World's Strongest Warriors Booster Box OP17 · EV $125.18 · $62.29 with no case hit$5.22 EV per pack	$334.33	$125.18	0.37×	$62.2919% of price	50%
OP14	The Azure Sea's Seven Booster Box OP14 · EV $95.03 · $55.69 with no case hit$3.96 EV per pack	$257.59	$95.03	0.37×	$55.6922% of price	41%
OP06	Wings of the Captain - Booster Box OP06 · EV $133.29 · $39.49 with no case hit$5.55 EV per pack	$390.90	$133.29	0.34×	$39.4910% of price	70%
OP08	Two Legends - Booster Box OP08 · EV $75.97 · $29.10 with no case hit$3.17 EV per pack	$247.05	$75.97	0.31×	$29.1012% of price	62%
OP10	Royal Blood Booster Box OP10 · EV $76.79 · $39.87 with no case hit$3.20 EV per pack	$251.83	$76.79	0.30×	$39.8716% of price	48%
OP12	Legacy of the Master Booster Box OP12 · EV $84.82 · $54.56 with no case hit$3.53 EV per pack	$281.32	$84.82	0.30×	$54.5619% of price	36%
OP07	500 Years in the Future - Booster Box OP07 · EV $98.32 · $35.77 with no case hit$4.10 EV per pack	$335.39	$98.32	0.29×	$35.7711% of price	64%
OP09	Emperors in the New World - Booster Box OP09 · EV $133.75 · $32.64 with no case hit$5.57 EV per pack	$663.11	$133.75	0.20×	$32.645% of price	76%
OP11	A Fist of Divine Speed Booster Box OP11 · EV $89.44 · $36.70 with no case hit$3.73 EV per pack	$604.58	$89.44	0.15×	$36.706% of price	59%
OP13	Carrying On His Will Booster Box OP13 · EV $58.25 · $41.44 with no case hit$2.43 EV per pack	$448.31	$58.25	0.13×	$41.449% of price	29%

EV is the expected value of the cards inside at today’s TCGplayer market prices; the ratio divides it by the box’s market price. Bandai publishes no pull rates, so the rates are community estimates: open a box to see each one with its basis and the sources. The rarest printings are seeded by the case and most boxes have none, so “no case hit” is the average of those boxes; a single box is often lower, because about half have no Secret Rare and two in three no alternate-art leader. Bulk rares are in neither figure. Ratios below 1.0 are normal.

Across the 12 boxes on the One Piece board, all-tiers EV runs from about 13 percent of the box price (Carrying On His Will) to about 56 percent (Adventure on Kami's Island), and no-case-hit EV from about 5 percent to about 30 percent. On both figures every box is below its market price as of mid-September 2026. This is information, not financial advice: opening sealed product is a gamble with a skewed payout, and buying singles is the cheaper way to get a specific card.

How we got these numbers

Prices are US TCGplayer market prices, an average of recent sales of English Near Mint copies, from the daily feed. Pull rates are community estimates from box and case openings, last reviewed on September 19, 2026; Bandai publishes none. Not modelled: Super Alternate Art cards, SP gold, silver and wanted-poster variants, special-foil and alternate-art DON!! cards, anniversary cards, commons, uncommons and base leaders, and any Extra Booster, Premium Booster or unreleased set. The formulas are on the methodology page.

Prices are TCGplayer market values via TCGCSV, refreshed daily; eBay buttons open live search results already filtered below market. As an eBay Partner Network affiliate, Pullnomics earns from qualifying purchases. Nothing here is financial advice: sealed product is entertainment with a resale value, not an investment.