Lost Origin Booster Box
From Lost Origin · Sword & Shield
The cards inside are worth $138.09 on average at TCGplayer market prices, 19% of the price, before any selling fees. How that is worked out
Listings range $725.00 – $5,000, mid $923.99
- Product type
- Booster Box
- Packs
- 36 packs
- Cards per pack
- 10
- Released
- Sep 9, 2022
Shop this product on eBay
TCGplayer market is $732.10. Anything listed under $644.24 is at least 12% below it before shipping.
Buy It Now · US sellers · English printing · Lowest price first
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What these searches leave out
Proxies, lots, code cards and other-language printings are excluded, and results are Buy It Now from US sellers, sorted by price plus shipping. Listings under $366.00 are left out because at that price they are almost always a different item. “Recently sold” opens eBay’s own sold listings for the same search, auctions included: what copies sold for, on eBay’s site. This site records none of those prices. You can save either search on eBay to be emailed new matches.
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Price history up to 180 days
What’s in the box
36 packs × 10 cards = 360 cards
The standard count for this kind of product. No source is cited for this product in particular.
Expected value of opening
0.19×computed Oct 30, 2026Well below break-even: the cards inside are worth about 19% of the $732.10 price on average at market prices. For specific cards, singles cost less.
- EV per pack
- $3.84
- 36 packs per booster box
- EV gross
- $138.09
- raw TCGplayer market value of the average pulls
- of which bulk
- $18.00
- the common and uncommon slots, at half their capped market price; not individually sellable
- EV net
- $92.04
- after 15% fees and $1 shipping per card; 0.13× price
- Break-even price
- $138.09
- the price at which gross EV equals what you paid, before any cost of selling
- Chase share
- 53%
- share of hit value from top-tier rarities (SIR, hyper, secret, a separate alternate-art tier)
- P(at least one hit)
- 100%
- any hit tier, in the whole booster box: Illustration Rare or better, or a special tier such as ACE SPEC, shiny or gallery cards
- Hit rate per pack
- 20%
- Illustration Rare or better, or a special tier such as ACE SPEC, shiny or gallery cards
| Rarity | Cards | Pull rate | Avg. per booster box | Mean price | EV / pack | Top card |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternate Art V1 in 201 packs · avg. 0.18 per booster box · 4 cards, mean $267.98Top: Giratina V #186 · $822.08 | 4 | 1 in 201 packs | 0.18 | $267.98 | $1.33 | Giratina V #186 · $822.08 |
| Trainer Gallery (any card, median price)1 in 8 packs · avg. 4.5 per booster box · 30 cards, mean $8.19Top: Pikachu V #TG16 · $106.60 | 30 | 1 in 8 packs | 4.5 | $8.19 | $1.02 | Pikachu V #TG16 · $106.60 |
| Rare Rainbow1 in 71.5 packs · avg. 0.50 per booster box · 15 cards, mean $7.58Top: Giratina VSTAR #201 · $23.73 | 15 | 1 in 71.5 packs | 0.50 | $7.58 | $0.11 | Giratina VSTAR #201 · $23.73 |
| Rare Holo V1 in 8.5 packs · avg. 4.2 per booster box · 12 cards, mean $0.87Top: Giratina V #130 · $2.25 | 12 | 1 in 8.5 packs | 4.2 | $0.87 | $0.10 | Giratina V #130 · $2.25 |
| VMAX & VSTAR1 in 20 packs · avg. 1.8 per booster box · 7 cards, mean $1.52Top: Giratina VSTAR #131 · $2.68 | 7 | 1 in 20 packs | 1.8 | $1.52 | $0.08 | Giratina VSTAR #131 · $2.68 |
| Rare Ultra1 in 51 packs · avg. 0.71 per booster box · 21 cards, mean $3.29Top: Giratina V #185 · $17.05 | 21 | 1 in 51 packs | 0.71 | $3.29 | $0.06 | Giratina V #185 · $17.05 |
| Rare Secret1 in 114 packs · avg. 0.32 per booster box · 6 cards, mean $5.87Top: Giratina VSTAR #212 · $18.71 | 6 | 1 in 114 packs | 0.32 | $5.87 | $0.05 | Giratina VSTAR #212 · $18.71 |
| Radiant Rare1 in 22.5 packs · avg. 1.6 per booster box · 3 cards, mean $1.12Top: Radiant Gardevoir #69 · $1.53 | 3 | 1 in 22.5 packs | 1.6 | $1.12 | $0.05 | Radiant Gardevoir #69 · $1.53 |
| Guaranteed slotsevery pack: rare slot, reverse holo, commons and uncommons at bulk value | — | every pack | — | — | $1.03 | rare slot, reverse holo, commons and uncommons at bulk value |
Model notes (1)
- no cards with rarity "Trainer Gallery Rare Holo" in set
Active eBay deals
Save a deal alert (emails are not sending yet)No deals right now
Every active eBay listing matched to this product is compared against the TCGplayer market price (currently $732.10), shipping included. A listing only counts as a deal when it lands at least 12% below that baseline and its card, condition and variant match is rated at least 50% confident, more for deeper discounts (above 85% from 40% off, above 95% from 70% off). A card listing must also state Near Mint, because a card’s market price is a Near Mint price. Seller “was” prices are ignored. Nothing qualifies at the moment. The eBay scan runs every 3 hours.
Guides for this product
- Is Lost Origin worth opening? Box EV and the Giratina V alt art oddsHow Lost Origin sealed products compare on price per pack and expected value, and what the cards in a box are worth against its price.
- How to spot resealed Pokémon booster boxes, ETBs and packsRed flags for resealed product in a listing, and what to check before you open it.
- How we compute sealed EV (and why most boxes are negative EV)How the expected value on this page is calculated, and what it does and does not tell you.
- Booster box vs Elite Trainer Box vs booster bundle: cost per packBooster box, Elite Trainer Box or bundle: what each costs per pack and who each one suits.
Other Lost Origin sealed products
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|---|---|---|---|
 Arceus VSTAR Ultra-Premium Collection CaseCase | Case | — | — |
 Arceus VSTAR Premium CollectionPremium Collection | Premium Collection | $305.24 | — |
 Arceus VSTAR Ultra-Premium CollectionPremium Collection | Premium Collection | $373.95 | — |
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