Pullnomics

Lost Origin pull rates

Pack-opening counts, as listed Sep 15, 2026 · Sword & Shield · released Sep 9, 2022

Odds per pack

TierOdds per packAvg per box (36)
Trainer Gallery (any)
30 cards
1 in 84.5
Pokémon V
12 cards
1 in 8.5
1 in 8–9
4.2
VMAX & VSTAR (any)
7 cards
1 in 20
1 in 17–23
1.8
Radiant Rare
3 cards
1 in 22.5
1 in 20–25
1.6
Full Art V
21 cards
1 in 510.71
Hyper Rare
15 cards
1 in 71.5
1 in 65–78
0.50
Gold Secret
6 cards
1 in 1140.32
Alternate Art V
4 cards
1 in 2010.18

Tier names follow the source’s. Where it lists a range, the odds are the midpoint.

Chance of at least one

Tierbundle (6)ETB (8)box (36)
Trainer Gallery (any)55%66%99%
Pokémon V53%63%99%
VMAX & VSTAR (any)26%34%84%
Radiant Rare24%30%81%
Full Art V11%15%51%
Hyper Rare8.1%11%40%
Gold Secret5.1%6.8%27%
Alternate Art V2.9%3.9%16%

The number beside each product is its pack count (ETB is the Elite Trainer Box; its Pokémon Center version holds 10). Each pack is treated as a separate draw at the listed rate. The counts do not say how hits are spread inside one box, so these are approximations.

Odds of one named card

TierOne named cardEven-chance packs
Trainer Gallery (any)
30 cards
1 in 240167
Pokémon V
12 cards
1 in 10271
VMAX & VSTAR (any)
7 cards
1 in 14097
Radiant Rare
3 cards
1 in 6847
Full Art V
21 cards
1 in 1,071743
Hyper Rare
15 cards
1 in 1,073744
Gold Secret
6 cards
1 in 684474
Alternate Art V
4 cards
1 in 804557

The source gives one rate for a whole tier, so every card of a tier is taken as equally likely. In a tier that mixes kinds of card (any Trainer Gallery card, full arts together with alternate arts) the scarcer cards are harder to pull than this even split. “Packs for an even chance” is how many packs it takes before pulling that one card is as likely as not.

What the cards are worth

RarityAverageMost valuable
Alternate Art V
4 cards
$276.00Giratina V #186 $841.43
Rare Rainbow
15 cards
$7.91Giratina VSTAR #201 $28.41
Rare Secret
6 cards
$5.77Giratina VSTAR #212 $18.65
Rare Ultra
21 cards
$3.38Giratina V #185 $18.22
Rare Holo VMAX
1 card
$2.55Kyurem VMAX #49 $2.55
Rare Holo VSTAR
6 cards
$1.47Giratina VSTAR #131 $2.65
Radiant Rare
3 cards
$1.08Radiant Gardevoir #69 $1.57
Rare Holo V
12 cards
$0.95Giratina V #130 $1.86
Trainer Gallery · same packs
Rare Holo VMAX
4 cards
$37.08Pikachu VMAX #TG17 $113.93
Rare Secret
2 cards
$27.25Mew VMAX #TG30 $31.29
Rare Holo V
7 cards
$25.20Pikachu V #TG16 $123.28
Trainer Gallery Rare Holo
11 cards
$16.13Gengar #TG06 $51.92
Rare Ultra
6 cards
$5.60Nessa #TG27 $13.14

TCGplayer market prices for raw Near Mint copies, as of Sep 19, 2026. Rarity names here are the card database’s, which is why they can differ from the tier names above. It files an alternate-art card under its printed rarity (Rare Ultra, Rare Rainbow). This site keeps its own checked list of the cards in the tiers the source counts apart, so those tiers have rows of their own here. Commons, uncommons and regular rares are left out: the card list has every card.

Sealed products

ProductMarket priceAverage pulls
Lost Origin Booster Box
36 packs
$733.72$137.98
Lost Origin Elite Trainer Box
8 packs
$195.18$30.66
Lost Origin Pokemon Center Elite Trainer Box (Exclusive)
10 packs
$380.91$38.33
Lost Origin Booster Bundle
6 packs
$202.15$23.00

“Average pulls” is what the cards in the product are worth on average at TCGplayer market prices, before any selling fees: the listed odds the card database can match, times today’s card prices, plus a small capped value for the common, uncommon and rare slots. The alternate-art tier above is counted at its own rate: the card database does not mark alternate arts, so the figure works from this site’s checked list of the set’s alternate-art cards. Box value board · how it is worked out

Reading these figures

  • The rates come from the evolvault.com pull-rate calculator, which adds up TCGplayer pack-opening datasets and community counts. They are not official odds from The Pokémon Company, and a different sample would give somewhat different numbers. Sources and cross-checks.
  • The rarest tiers rest on the fewest pulls, so their odds are the least certain on the page. Where the source lists a range it is shown beside the figure; a single figure is not a sign of a more exact count.
  • Odds are averages over many packs. A single box, or ten, can land well above or below them.