Is Lost Origin worth opening? Box EV and the Giratina V alt art odds

Verdict

No Lost Origin product holds its price in raw card value: EV ratios run from about 0.10 to about 0.23. As of September 20, 2026 a Lost Origin booster box runs about $734 and the cards inside average about $140 at market. That is about 19 cents of raw card value per dollar, a little more than half of what a typical booster box on our board holds. The alternate-art Giratina V #186 is about $841, more than the box it comes from. The published alternate-art rate puts that card at about 1 in 804 packs, roughly $16,400 of boxes. A loose pack is about $19 and holds about $3.90 of expected cards.

What Lost Origin is

Lost Origin (set code LOR) is a Sword & Shield series set released on September 9, 2022. The main set has 217 cards, 196 in the printed count and 21 secret cards numbered past it.

Its packs also hold a second checklist, the 30-card Trainer Gallery. Pullnomics lists that companion subset on a page of its own, Lost Origin Trainer Gallery, yet every Lost Origin sealed EV figure includes its cards.

By printed rarity, the main set's rare tiers are 12 Rare Holo V, 6 Rare Holo VSTAR, 1 Rare Holo VMAX, 3 Radiant Rare, 25 Rare Ultra (alternate-art V cards included), 15 Rare Rainbow and 6 gold Rare Secret cards.

The site lists the booster box (36 packs), two Elite Trainer Boxes (eight packs, and 10 in the Pokémon Center version), the booster bundle (six), loose packs and blisters, plus tins and premium collections filed under this set, which carry no EV here: their packs come from several Sword & Shield sets, or the contents list does not name the set.

The numbers

The figures below come from the Lost Origin set page and describe the 217 main-set cards alone; the Trainer Gallery is counted on its own page.

As of September 27, 2026, half of the main set's cards are worth 21 cents or less, and only nine are worth $10 or more (a count from September 20, 2026). An earlier version of this page gave the median as about 35 cents, a figure that valued each card at its dearest printing rather than its standard one. Buying one of each at market would cost about $1,392, and Giratina V #186 is about 61 percent of that. Add Aerodactyl V #180 at about $209 (its price on September 20, 2026) and two cards hold about 76 percent. The other 215 cards cost about $340 together.

The Trainer Gallery is the healthier half: its 12 most valuable cards cost about $497 together.

Sealed EV by product

Sealed EV values a product by the average cards inside it at TCGplayer market prices, using the formula in the methodology. Whatever the product, a Lost Origin pack holds about $3.90 of expected cards, Trainer Gallery included.

The booster box costs about $20 per pack and has an EV ratio of about 0.19. Take off a 15 percent marketplace fee and $1 of shipping for each card worth at least $1, and the box's net EV is about $95. The shortfall is in the price, not the contents: the set is out of print, and sealed product carries a collector premium.

Nor is the box the cheapest way to buy packs: a loose booster pack is about $19, a ratio of about 0.20, and the single-pack Croagunk blister, about $17, has the list's highest ratio, about 0.23. The highest prices per pack are the booster bundle, about $202 for six packs and about 12 cents of card value per dollar, and the Pokémon Center Elite Trainer Box, about $381 for 10 packs and about 10 cents.

Three Pokémon Stacking Tins (about $51 to $58) are filed under this set but carry no pack count and no EV: their packs come from more than one set.

The Trainer Gallery is valued with a median, not a mean. The published data gives one rate, 1 in 8 packs, for any Trainer Gallery card, although the V, VMAX and gold cards are rarer than the character rares. An even mean of the 30 prices would lean on Pikachu V TG16 and Pikachu VMAX TG17, both over $100 and among the hardest to pull, and overstate the result. The median card is about $9. So the gallery's part of the $3.90 is conservative.

Chase share is about 51 percent, most of it the alternate-art tier: Rare Rainbow and Rare Secret cards are cheap here. At 1 in 201 packs and a mean of about $276, the four alternate-art V cards add about $1.37 per pack, about $1.05 of it from Giratina V #186 alone. The 21 regular full arts, at 1 in 51 and a mean of about $3.38, add about 7 cents. Since September 20, 2026 the EV also counts the source's "VMAX & VSTAR (any)" tier: the seven regular VMAX and VSTAR cards, at 1 in 20 packs and a mean of about $1.63, add about 8 cents per pack. Like a regular V, they are not counted as hits in the site's hit-rate figures.

Chase cards

Below are the eight highest-priced cards from Lost Origin and its Trainer Gallery as a single pool.

The main set's list starts with Giratina V #186, the alternate art illustrated by Shinji Kanda, at about $841, and Aerodactyl V #180 at about $209. Then comes a cliff: Rotom V #177 is about $31 and the rainbow Giratina VSTAR #201 about $28.

The Trainer Gallery's list is led by Pikachu V TG16 at about $123 and Pikachu VMAX TG17 at about $114, followed by Gengar TG06 at about $52, Pikachu TG05 at about $45 and Charizard TG03 at about $32.

The Rare Ultra mean of about $47 misleads. Giratina and Aerodactyl account for about $1,051 of the group's $1,175, and the other 23 cards average about $5. Giratina V #185 has the same printed rarity as #186 and costs about $18 against about $841. It is a regular full art, so the EV counts it at the full-art rate and #186 at the alternate-art rate.

Pull rates

Lost Origin's rates come from pack-opening counts published for this set, not from a Sword & Shield era average. Every figure is a midpoint of those counts, collected in September 2026, with sources in the methodology.

A box of 36 packs averages about four Rare Holo V cards, four or five Trainer Gallery cards, one or two regular VMAX or VSTAR cards (1 in 20 packs) and one or two Radiant Rares. Everything above that appears less than once per box: regular full-art Rare Ultras at 1 in 51 packs, Rare Rainbow at 1 in 71.5 and Rare Secret at 1 in 114. On those rates about half of boxes hold no regular full art. With the source's alternate-art tier added (1 in 201, described below), about 41 percent of boxes hold no Rare Ultra of any kind.

The published counts give this set's four alternate-art V cards a tier of their own, about 1 in 201 packs. No count goes card by card, so take the four as equally likely: Giratina V #186 is then about 1 in 804 packs. That is about 22 booster boxes, or roughly $16,400 of sealed product, to chase an $841 card. The EV in this guide uses that tier. The card database files Giratina with the other 24 Rare Ultra cards, with nothing to mark it as an alternate art, so Pullnomics keeps its own list of the four alternate arts, taken from TCGplayer's product names and checked against the source's card count. The four get the 1 in 201 rate, and the other 21 Rare Ultras, the regular full arts, share the 1 in 51 rate, about 1 in 1,071 packs each. Before September 20, 2026 the EV left the alternate-art tier out and gave all 25 an equal share of the 1 in 51 rate, about 1 in 1,275 packs each. At September 20, 2026 prices, that model gives a pack EV of about $3.30; the alternate-art tier adds about 52 cents and the VMAX and VSTAR tier about 8 cents, for about $3.90. The Lost Origin pull-rate page lists every tier.

The Trainer Gallery follows the same logic: spread evenly over 30 cards, 1 in 8 packs becomes about 1 in 240 for any one card, and longer for the V, VMAX and gold cards.

Who should open it and who should buy singles

Giratina V #186 costs about $841 as a single. A box costs less than the card, yet on the published alternate-art rate one box has about a 4 percent chance of containing it.

Completing the set costs less through singles: the $1,392 cost of a full main set on September 27, 2026 is about 68 packs at September 20, 2026 box prices, which average one or two of the 25 Rare Ultras and about one of the 15 Rare Rainbows.

For players the comparison is short: the average Rare Holo V is about 95 cents as a single, against about $19 for a loose pack that averages about $3.90 of cards. If a sealed box is already on your shelf, opening it swaps a $734 collectible for about $140 of expected cards.

How to buy it cheaper

Open a Lost Origin card or sealed product other than a code card on the site and its page gives you the TCGplayer market price, a price history, the price 12 percent below market, and two eBay buttons, except that, as of October 8, 2026, a page whose market is under $5, more than 10 percent above TCGplayer's highest listing or more than 25 percent above its middle listing gives no below-market price and only the uncapped button. The first sends you to eBay's own search results for Buy It Now listings from US sellers, with proxies, lots, code cards and look-alike products excluded, sorted by price plus shipping and capped at 12 percent under market. The second is that search without the cap, and both are affiliate links. Since September 23, 2026, the block below lists the best-scored of this set's eBay listings that are matched and scored at least 12 percent under market; if the site's eBay scan were off, it would show eBay searches for the set's main sealed products instead.

The cap is on the item price only, so shipping comes on top. For the booster box, below market means a landed price, item plus shipping, of about $646 or less: 12 percent under market. A capped search with no results means no listing is below market at that moment. Press the second button for every current price, then save the search on eBay ("Save this search") so eBay emails new matches.

Card prices here are raw Near Mint, and under the Deal Score method in the methodology the qualifying landed price for Giratina V #186 is about $740 Near Mint. Since October 8, 2026, the method scores only a card listing whose condition is stated as Near Mint, so a Lightly Played copy, or a listing that states no condition, gets no Deal Score. Trading cards sold for $200 or more in the US are covered by eBay's Authenticity Guarantee. At market price only Giratina and Aerodactyl V #180 clear that line; an Aerodactyl bought 12 percent under market, about $184, would not. Read raw vs slabbed before buying a graded copy and how to spot resealed booster boxes and packs before paying box money.

Bottom line

Lost Origin is a one-card set at a one-card price. A loose pack is about $19 and a pack from a box about $20, against about $3.90 of expected cards each, and the $734 box holds about $140 of them. Giratina V #186 is 61 percent of the main set's value as of September 27, 2026, and the published alternate-art rate puts it at about 1 in 804 packs. The Trainer Gallery's best cards are cheaper to buy than to chase. If singles are what you want, start from the Lost Origin set page, open the card and press its capped eBay button first, where the page has one.