27/100
Paldean Fates Tin [Charizard ex] - SV: Paldean Fates: Factory Sealed
$170.00incl. $15.00 shippingmarket $199.2415% below market
NMBuy It Nowhigh confidencethegreatleader (100%)found confirmed listed
Paldean Fates Tin [Charizard ex]
From Paldean Fates · Scarlet & Violet
The cards inside are worth $32.04 on average at TCGplayer market prices, 16% of the price, before any selling fees. How that is worked out
![Paldean Fates Tin [Charizard ex]](https://tcgplayer-cdn.tcgplayer.com/product/528056_400w.jpg)
Listings range $198.00 – $500.00, mid $210.00
- Product type
- Tin
- Packs
- 5 packs
- Cards per pack
- 10
- Released
- Feb 9, 2024
Shop this product on eBay
TCGplayer market is $199.24. Anything listed under $175.33 is at least 12% below it before shipping.
Buy It Now · US sellers · English printing · Lowest price first
No matches on the first button means this search found nothing listed under that price right now. The second button shows every current price.
What these searches leave out
Proxies, lots, code cards and other-language printings are excluded, and results are Buy It Now from US sellers, sorted by price plus shipping. Listings under $99.00 are left out because at that price they are almost always a different item. “Recently sold” opens eBay’s own sold listings for the same search, auctions included: what copies sold for, on eBay’s site. This site records none of those prices. You can save either search on eBay to be emailed new matches.
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Price history up to 180 days
What’s in the tin
5 packs × 10 cards = 50 cards
All 5 packs are Paldean Fates packs. Sources: PokeGuardian · ICv2
Expected value of opening
0.16×computed Oct 30, 2026Well below break-even: the cards inside are worth about 16% of the $199.24 price on average at market prices. For specific cards, singles cost less.
- EV per pack
- $6.41
- 5 packs per tin
- EV gross
- $32.04
- raw TCGplayer market value of the average pulls
- of which bulk
- $1.90
- the common and uncommon slots, at half their capped market price; not individually sellable
- EV net
- $22.80
- after 15% fees and $1 shipping per card; 0.11× price
- Break-even price
- $32.04
- the price at which gross EV equals what you paid, before any cost of selling
- Chase share
- 57%
- share of hit value from top-tier rarities (SIR, hyper, secret, a separate alternate-art tier)
- P(at least one hit)
- 94%
- any hit tier, in the whole tin: Illustration Rare or better, or a special tier such as ACE SPEC, shiny or gallery cards
- Hit rate per pack
- 42%
- Illustration Rare or better, or a special tier such as ACE SPEC, shiny or gallery cards
- Pull rates
- Published, partly
- source: evolvault.com pull-rate calculator, which lists no rate for Double Rare, so an era average stands in there: about 3% of this pack’s EV. all pull-rate tiers
| Rarity | Cards | Pull rate | Avg. per tin | Mean price | EV / pack | Top card |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Special Illustration Rare1 in 62.5 packs · avg. 0.08 per tin · 8 cards, mean $166.86Top: Mew ex #232 · $843.07 | 8 | 1 in 62.5 packs | 0.08 | $166.86 | $2.67 | Mew ex #232 · $843.07 |
| Shiny Rare1 in 4 packs · avg. 1.3 per tin · 120 cards, mean $8.13Top: Pikachu #131 · $73.68 | 120 | 1 in 4 packs | 1.3 | $8.13 | $2.03 | Pikachu #131 · $73.68 |
| Shiny Ultra Rare1 in 12 packs · avg. 0.42 per tin · 12 cards, mean $5.29Top: Mew ex #216 · $34.01 | 12 | 1 in 12 packs | 0.42 | $5.29 | $0.44 | Mew ex #216 · $34.01 |
| Illustration Rare1 in 13 packs · avg. 0.38 per tin · 3 cards, mean $2.20Top: Pawmi #226 · $2.82 | 3 | 1 in 13 packs | 0.38 | $2.20 | $0.17 | Pawmi #226 · $2.82 |
| Double Rareera average1 in 6 packs · avg. 0.83 per tin · 10 cards, mean $0.98Top: Charizard ex #54 · $4.51 | 10 | 1 in 6 packs | 0.83 | $0.98 | $0.16 | Charizard ex #54 · $4.51 |
| Hyper Rare1 in 97.5 packs · avg. 0.05 per tin · 6 cards, mean $10.19Top: Miraidon ex #243 · $15.68 | 6 | 1 in 97.5 packs | 0.05 | $10.19 | $0.10 | Miraidon ex #243 · $15.68 |
| Ultra Rare1 in 14.5 packs · avg. 0.34 per tin · 5 cards, mean $0.79Top: Judge #228 · $0.99 | 5 | 1 in 14.5 packs | 0.34 | $0.79 | $0.05 | Judge #228 · $0.99 |
| Guaranteed slotsevery pack: rare slot, reverse holo, commons and uncommons at bulk value | — | every pack | — | — | $0.77 | rare slot, reverse holo, commons and uncommons at bulk value |
Active eBay deals (2)
Save a deal alert (emails are not sending yet)Each listing is priced, shipping included, against the TCGplayer market for the matched card or product. A card’s market is a Near Mint price, so a card listing is scored only when it states Near Mint; played copies and listings that state no condition are not listed. Deal Score 0–100 measures how far below that market it lands, weighted by match confidence. Auctions are down-weighted because the price can still rise.
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- Landed price $170.00 = $155.00 item + $15.00 shipping
- Baseline: TCGplayer market $199.24 (Normal)
- Savings $29.24 (15% below) → Deal Score 27 at 85% confidence
27/100
Pokemon TCG Scarlet & Violet Paldean Fates Charizard Ex Tin New Factory Sealed
$170.10incl. $10.11 shippingmarket $199.2415% below market
NMBuy It Nowhigh confidenceorcstermkv (100%)found confirmed listed
- Landed price $170.10 = $159.99 item + $10.11 shipping
- Baseline: TCGplayer market $199.24 (Normal)
- Savings $29.14 (15% below) → Deal Score 27 at 85% confidence
Guides for this product
- Is Paldean Fates worth opening? EV, pull rates and shiny oddsHow Paldean Fates sealed products compare on price per pack and expected value, and what the cards in a box are worth against its price.
- How to spot resealed Pokémon booster boxes, ETBs and packsRed flags for resealed product in a listing, and what to check before you open it.
- How we compute sealed EV (and why most boxes are negative EV)How the expected value on this page is calculated, and what it does and does not tell you.
- Opening packs vs buying singles: what a chase card costs each wayOpening this for one card? The average pack spend to pull a set's most valuable card, set against buying it as a single.
Other Paldean Fates sealed products
Compare this product side by side with Paldean Fates’s other products
| Product | Type | Packs | Market EV ratio | Per pack | EV (gross) | EV ratio | Deals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Paldean Fates Elite Trainer BoxElite Trainer Box · 9 packs ($48.56 each) · EV $57.67 | Elite Trainer Box | 9 | $437.080.13× | $48.56 | $57.67 | 0.13× | 2 deals |
 Paldean Fates Booster BundleBooster Bundle · 6 packs ($27.98 each) · EV $38.44 | Booster Bundle | 6 | $167.910.23× | $27.98 | $38.44 | 0.23× | — |
 Paldean Fates Booster Bundle DisplayBooster Bundle | Booster Bundle | — | $1,555 | — | — | n/a | — |
 Paldean Fates Booster PackBooster Pack · 1 pack · EV $6.41 | Booster Pack | 1 | $23.280.28× | $23.28 | $6.41 | 0.28× | — |
 Paldean Fates Booster Pack Art Bundle [Set of 4]Booster Pack · 4 packs ($24.05 each) · EV $25.63 | Booster Pack | 4 | $96.180.27× | $24.05 | $25.63 | 0.27× | — |
 Paldean Fates Booster Bundle Display CaseCase | Case | — | — | — | — | n/a | — |
 Paldean Fates Elite Trainer Box CaseCase · 90 packs ($45.48 each) · EV $576.67 | Case | 90 | $4,0930.14× | $45.48 | $576.67 | 0.14× | — |