Lost Origin 3 Pack Blister [Set of 2] – price, EV & deals

From Lost Origin · Sword & Shield

$146.88TCGplayer market · updated 2h ago0.05×

Listings range $138.50 – $149.99, mid $148.40

Product type: Blister
Packs: 3 packs
Cards per pack: 10
Released: Sep 9, 2022

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Price history last 180 days

Market$146.88One daily snapshot so far — the line fills in as TCGplayer market prices are captured each day (up to 180 days shown).

Expected value of opening

0.05×computed Sep 15, 2026

Well below break-even: opening returns only about 5% of the $146.88 price in raw card value. Hold sealed for appreciation or buy singles; do not open this expecting to recover the cost.

EV per pack: $2.22; 3 packs per blister
EV gross: $6.66; raw TCGplayer market value of the average pulls
EV net: $4.10; after 15% fees and $1 shipping per card; 0.03× price
Break-even price: $6.66; pay less than this and opening beats buying singles on average
Chase share: 13%; share of hit value from top-tier rarities (SIR, hyper, secret)
P(at least one top hit): 23%; in the whole blister
Hit rate per pack: 8%; illustration rare or better
Pull rates: Published; source: published

Per-rarity contribution to EV per pack. Mean price is the average TCGplayer market of every card at that rarity in the set.
Rarity	Cards	Pull rate	Mean price	EV / pack	Top card
Rare Ultra	25	1 in 51 packs	$46.90	$0.92	Giratina V #186 · $838.53
Rare Holo V	12	1 in 8.5 packs	$0.97	$0.11	Giratina V #130 · $1.83
Rare Rainbow	15	1 in 71.5 packs	$7.98	$0.11	Giratina VSTAR #201 · $28.85
Rare Secret	6	1 in 114 packs	$5.71	$0.05	Giratina VSTAR #212 · $18.52
Radiant Rare	3	1 in 22.5 packs	$1.09	$0.05	Radiant Gardevoir #69 · $1.67
Guaranteed slots	—	every pack	—	$0.98	rare slot, reverse holo, commons and uncommons at bulk value

Model notes (1)

no cards with rarity "Trainer Gallery Rare Holo" in set

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Every active eBay listing matched to this product is compared against the TCGplayer market price (currently $146.88), shipping included. A listing only counts as a deal when it lands at least 12% below that baseline with a confident card, condition and variant match — seller “was” prices are ignored. Nothing qualifies at the moment; listings are re-checked every 15 minutes.

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Other Lost Origin sealed products

Product	Type	Packs	Market	EV (gross)	EV ratio	Deals
Arceus VSTAR Ultra-Premium Collection Case	Case	—	—	—	n/a	—
Arceus VSTAR Premium Collection	Premium Collection	6	$295.16	$13.31	0.05×	—
Arceus VSTAR Ultra-Premium Collection	Premium Collection	16	$380.29	$35.50	0.09×	—
Hisuian Zoroark VSTAR Premium Collection	Premium Collection	6	$198.92	$13.31	0.07×	—
Hisuian Zoroark VSTAR Premium Collection (International Version)	Premium Collection	6	$99.93	$13.31	0.13×	—
Lost Origin 3 Pack Blister [Regigigas]	Blister	3	$53.97	$6.66	0.12×	—