40/100
Pokémon Sword & Shield Lost Origin Elite Trainer Box- SEALED- Fast USA Shipping
$151.78incl. $7.78 shippingmarket $194.0822% below market
NMBuy It Nowhigh confidencetn-dave (100%)found confirmed listed
Lost Origin Elite Trainer Box
From Lost Origin · Sword & Shield
The cards inside are worth $30.69 on average at TCGplayer market prices, 16% of the price, before any selling fees. How that is worked out
Listings range $182.00 – $600.00, mid $229.99
- Product type
- Elite Trainer Box
- Packs
- 8 packs
- Cards per pack
- 10
- Released
- Sep 9, 2022
Shop this product on eBay
TCGplayer market is $194.08. Anything listed under $170.79 is at least 12% below it before shipping.
Buy It Now · US sellers · English printing · Lowest price first
No matches on the first button means this search found nothing listed under that price right now. The second button shows every current price.
What these searches leave out
Proxies, lots, code cards and other-language printings are excluded, and results are Buy It Now from US sellers, sorted by price plus shipping. Listings under $97.00 are left out because at that price they are almost always a different item. “Recently sold” opens eBay’s own sold listings for the same search, auctions included: what copies sold for, on eBay’s site. This site records none of those prices. You can save either search on eBay to be emailed new matches.
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Price history up to 180 days
What’s in the box
8 packs × 10 cards = 80 cards
The standard count for this kind of product. No source is cited for this product in particular.
Expected value of opening
0.16×computed Oct 30, 2026Well below break-even: the cards inside are worth about 16% of the $194.08 price on average at market prices. For specific cards, singles cost less.
- EV per pack
- $3.84
- 8 packs per elite trainer box
- EV gross
- $30.69
- raw TCGplayer market value of the average pulls
- of which bulk
- $4.00
- the common and uncommon slots, at half their capped market price; not individually sellable
- EV net
- $20.45
- after 15% fees and $1 shipping per card; 0.11× price
- Break-even price
- $30.69
- the price at which gross EV equals what you paid, before any cost of selling
- Chase share
- 53%
- share of hit value from top-tier rarities (SIR, hyper, secret, a separate alternate-art tier)
- P(at least one hit)
- 84%
- any hit tier, in the whole elite trainer box: Illustration Rare or better, or a special tier such as ACE SPEC, shiny or gallery cards
- Hit rate per pack
- 20%
- Illustration Rare or better, or a special tier such as ACE SPEC, shiny or gallery cards
| Rarity | Cards | Pull rate | Avg. per elite trainer box | Mean price | EV / pack | Top card |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternate Art V1 in 201 packs · avg. 0.04 per elite trainer box · 4 cards, mean $267.98Top: Giratina V #186 · $822.08 | 4 | 1 in 201 packs | 0.04 | $267.98 | $1.33 | Giratina V #186 · $822.08 |
| Trainer Gallery (any card, median price)1 in 8 packs · avg. 1.0 per elite trainer box · 30 cards, mean $8.19Top: Pikachu V #TG16 · $106.60 | 30 | 1 in 8 packs | 1.0 | $8.19 | $1.02 | Pikachu V #TG16 · $106.60 |
| Rare Rainbow1 in 71.5 packs · avg. 0.11 per elite trainer box · 15 cards, mean $7.58Top: Giratina VSTAR #201 · $23.73 | 15 | 1 in 71.5 packs | 0.11 | $7.58 | $0.11 | Giratina VSTAR #201 · $23.73 |
| Rare Holo V1 in 8.5 packs · avg. 0.94 per elite trainer box · 12 cards, mean $0.87Top: Giratina V #130 · $2.25 | 12 | 1 in 8.5 packs | 0.94 | $0.87 | $0.10 | Giratina V #130 · $2.25 |
| VMAX & VSTAR1 in 20 packs · avg. 0.40 per elite trainer box · 7 cards, mean $1.52Top: Giratina VSTAR #131 · $2.68 | 7 | 1 in 20 packs | 0.40 | $1.52 | $0.08 | Giratina VSTAR #131 · $2.68 |
| Rare Ultra1 in 51 packs · avg. 0.16 per elite trainer box · 21 cards, mean $3.29Top: Giratina V #185 · $17.05 | 21 | 1 in 51 packs | 0.16 | $3.29 | $0.06 | Giratina V #185 · $17.05 |
| Rare Secret1 in 114 packs · avg. 0.07 per elite trainer box · 6 cards, mean $5.87Top: Giratina VSTAR #212 · $18.71 | 6 | 1 in 114 packs | 0.07 | $5.87 | $0.05 | Giratina VSTAR #212 · $18.71 |
| Radiant Rare1 in 22.5 packs · avg. 0.36 per elite trainer box · 3 cards, mean $1.12Top: Radiant Gardevoir #69 · $1.53 | 3 | 1 in 22.5 packs | 0.36 | $1.12 | $0.05 | Radiant Gardevoir #69 · $1.53 |
| Guaranteed slotsevery pack: rare slot, reverse holo, commons and uncommons at bulk value | — | every pack | — | — | $1.03 | rare slot, reverse holo, commons and uncommons at bulk value |
Model notes (1)
- no cards with rarity "Trainer Gallery Rare Holo" in set
Active eBay deals (1)
Save a deal alert (emails are not sending yet)Each listing is priced, shipping included, against the TCGplayer market for the matched card or product. A card’s market is a Near Mint price, so a card listing is scored only when it states Near Mint; played copies and listings that state no condition are not listed. Deal Score 0–100 measures how far below that market it lands, weighted by match confidence. Auctions are down-weighted because the price can still rise.
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- Landed price $151.78 = $144.00 item + $7.78 shipping
- Baseline: TCGplayer market $194.08 (Normal)
- Savings $42.30 (22% below) → Deal Score 40 at 85% confidence
Guides for this product
- Is Lost Origin worth opening? Box EV and the Giratina V alt art oddsHow Lost Origin sealed products compare on price per pack and expected value, and what the cards in a box are worth against its price.
- How to spot resealed Pokémon booster boxes, ETBs and packsRed flags for resealed product in a listing, and what to check before you open it.
- How we compute sealed EV (and why most boxes are negative EV)How the expected value on this page is calculated, and what it does and does not tell you.
- Booster box vs Elite Trainer Box vs booster bundle: cost per packBooster box, Elite Trainer Box or bundle: what each costs per pack and who each one suits.
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