Chaos Rising pull rates
Pack-opening counts, as listed Sep 15, 2026 · Mega Evolution · released May 22, 2026
Odds per pack
| Tier | Odds per pack | Avg per box (36)Average per booster box (36 packs) |
|---|---|---|
| Double Rare | 1 in 4.5 1 in 4–5 | 8.0 |
| Illustration Rare 11 cards | 1 in 9.5 1 in 9–10 | 3.8 |
| Ultra Rare 18 cards | 1 in 16.5 1 in 15–18 | 2.2 |
| Special Illustration Rare 6 cards | 1 in 82.5 1 in 80–85 | 0.44 |
| Mega Hyper Rare 1 card | 1 in 975 1 in 950–1,000 | 0.04 |
Tier names follow the source’s. Where it lists a range, the odds are the midpoint.
Chance of at least one
| Tier | bundle (6) | ETB (9) | box (36) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double Rare | 78% | 90% | over 99% |
| Illustration Rare | 49% | 63% | 98% |
| Ultra Rare | 31% | 43% | 89% |
| Special Illustration Rare | 7.1% | 10% | 36% |
| Mega Hyper Rare | 0.6% | 0.9% | 3.6% |
The number beside each product is its pack count (ETB is the Elite Trainer Box; its Pokémon Center version holds 11). Each pack is treated as a separate draw at the listed rate. The counts do not say how hits are spread inside one box, so these are approximations.
Odds of one named card
| Tier | One named card | Even-chance packsPacks for an even chance |
|---|---|---|
| Illustration Rare 11 cards | 1 in 105 | 73 |
| Ultra Rare 18 cards | 1 in 297 | 206 |
| Special Illustration Rare 6 cards | 1 in 495 | 343 |
| Mega Hyper Rare 1 card | 1 in 975 | 676 |
The source gives one rate for a whole tier, so every card of a tier is taken as equally likely. “Packs for an even chance” is how many packs it takes before pulling that one card is as likely as not.
What the cards are worth
| Rarity | Average | Most valuable |
|---|---|---|
| Mega Hyper Rare 1 card | $148.17 | Mega Greninja ex #122 $148.17 |
| Special Illustration Rare 6 cards | $51.01 | Mega Greninja ex #116 $161.60 |
| Illustration Rare 11 cards | $3.34 | Froakie #88 $5.68 |
| Ultra Rare 18 cards | $2.68 | Mega Greninja ex #100 $9.37 |
| Double Rare 10 cards | $0.61 | Mega Greninja ex #22 $0.94 |
TCGplayer market prices for raw Near Mint copies, as of Sep 19, 2026. Rarity names here are the card database’s, which is why they can differ from the tier names above. Commons, uncommons and regular rares are left out: the card list has every card.
Sealed products
| Product | Market price | Average pulls |
|---|---|---|
| Chaos Rising Booster Box 36 packs | $192.16 | $70.89 |
| Chaos Rising Elite Trainer Box 9 packs | $69.00 | $17.72 |
| Chaos Rising Pokemon Center Elite Trainer Box 11 packs | $120.36 | $21.66 |
| Chaos Rising Booster Bundle 6 packs | $36.81 | $11.81 |
“Average pulls” is what the cards in the product are worth on average at TCGplayer market prices, before any selling fees: the listed odds the card database can match, times today’s card prices, plus a small capped value for the common, uncommon and rare slots. Box value board · how it is worked out
Reading these figures
- The rates come from the evolvault.com pull-rate calculator, which adds up TCGplayer pack-opening datasets and community counts. They are not official odds from The Pokémon Company, and a different sample would give somewhat different numbers. Sources and cross-checks.
- The rarest tiers rest on the fewest pulls, so their odds are the least certain on the page. Where the source lists a range it is shown beside the figure; a single figure is not a sign of a more exact count.
- Odds are averages over many packs. A single box, or ten, can land well above or below them.